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Lost

2004 · TV series · 6 seasons

Created by J.J. Abrams, Damon Lindelof, Jeffrey Lieber

MysteryActionAdventureDrama

Stripped of everything, the survivors of a horrific plane crash must work together to stay alive. But the island holds many secrets.

31 positive67 negative13 mixed116 neutralfrom 227 commenters

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251 comments on Hacker News

  1. PositivebluescrnAug 10, 2026

    TV shows on the other hand, have suffered extreme shrinkflation.

    From 20+ episode seasons every year to maybe 8-10 episodes every 2-3 years.

    Yeah, budgets/production values are higher. But characters and storytelling were often better in those old shows (Star Trek TNG/DS9, Lost, 24, Breaking Bad) where they could make those longer seasons every year for 5 or more years in a row. Simply far more screen time for character development.

  2. NegativedofmJul 4, 2026

    > But even then, it's still the phone, in my experience.

    It's never been the phone for me, particularly. I just don't pick mine up very often.

    To have much more time to learn things I had to learn one key skill: systematically lose interest in syndicated American television. Other people can watch Lost, Game of Thrones, How I Met Your Mother etc.; I will use my time elsewhere.

    (OK so I picked three there that are apparently widely recognised as having a major letdown as an ending, but you see my point I guess.)

    Once I stopped sharing an interest in watching every episode of some show that a friend or the general zeitgeist was obsessed with, that is hundreds of hours (per show!) for a hobby.

    And these days it's hobby-enabling money, because in many cases these shows are the only reason to pick up an extra streaming subscription. You can buy a good 3D printer and some filament, or an electric guitar and a little amp or headphone effects unit for less than a year's premium plan for an American streaming service, and a fully playable guitar alone costs about as much as a year's standard Netflix.

    I learned this long enough ago that I have gone without a television for decades now. I had to re-learn it in the era of streaming TV. If you think you want to see one of these shows, they will be around forever so you can watch them from a hospital bed one day.

  3. Positivewise_bloodJun 3, 2026

    I can swear by anything that Lindelof does for TV

    Lost, The Leftovers, Watchmen, Mrs Davis: they are all great

    Can't wait for Lanterns.

    (His movies career is... less good. He shines in serialized stories I guess)

  4. NegativeregularfryMay 18, 2026

    He absolutely was, quite famously. He'd be writing the episodes in the diner week-to-week.

    For me it's the pattern for a lot of shows that went off the rails: starts with a strong premise and setting, but gets an indefinite run so the writer(s) can't actually terminate any story arcs and end up floundering badly. It got dramatically better again when he had to wrap it up.

    Some shows start off in that state (like Lost - I was familiar enough with the pattern then to avoid getting sucked into that one); some drift into it (Twin Peaks and BSG at least). It usually takes getting cancelled to pull them out of it, which is really sad.

  5. NegativeBatbirdMar 26, 2026

    I remember jumping into Swift from Obj-C in 2014 and using words like "beautiful" and "expressive" to describe syntax, and saying things like "you can tell what language someone is coming from by how they code in Swift". Now it's grown as it has - sometimes feels like season 4 of Lost. Makes me feel old too.

  6. NeutralgeorgeecollinsFeb 14, 2026

    Hollywood is a company town, even more then because there was way less international production. B5 was pitched to every studio long before the first episode of DS9. The executives deciding to greenlight DS9 would know about BS5 even if the showrunners didn’t. Lots of people worked on both shows.

    That said, two people have the same idea all the time. B5 really pioneered the idea of a show with a multi season arc that was planned up front. In a time where shows more or less reset continuity after every episode. Shows like Lost pretended they knew where they were going but really made it up as they went along.

    Deep Space Nine had a similar multi season arc, which is why I think the poster said soap opera.

  7. NegativeusrusrFeb 14, 2026

    Not knowing the established history of some characters can actually be nice I think. The difference between a blank slate with conveniently made up background and a background that has already been told, in quite some detail, that difference tends to be very noticeable. No matter how "complex" the background made up on the spot is.

    When the background has been told elsewhere, it's a legitimate challenge to the unprepared viewer's mind. But when it's made up on the spot, it's an arbitrary riddle. I know some viewers love that kind of stuff (e.g. everybody who made it through Lost I guess?), but to me that just feels annoying. If you want me to apply myself to the riddle, make it part of the story (like in a whodunnit), or don't keep me guessing.

    But when it's organically grown background complexity from another story, I'm perfectly fine with it. Patrick Stewart's Gurney Halleck: he just pops up later with atomics, the "how" is not part of the movie adaptation. And neither is speculating about it. It's just an obvious indication that yes, there's more happening in this universe than the part squeezed into anamorphic cinemascope.

    That being said, yes, watching TNG after DS9 wouldn't work well at all. It's hard enough watching early episodes after late episodes, because even the "adventure of the week" episodes have been told very differently later, but the universe is too much the same to really disconnect.

  8. NeutralBoorishBearsFeb 12, 2026

    That's a massive jump.

    It becomes more like Lost because you can't go on even the planned 4 seasons without expanding an already pretty expansive in-universe lore.

    Without spoiling it, obviously Season 2 opened a lot of lore-based threads that the confirmation of a Season 4 ensures will not be getting resolved for another 3+ years and over a lot more content.

    That's not inherently bad, but it becomes a different show than if it had been trimmed to 3 seasons, and I can easily see why it's no longer for some people.

  9. MixedfoobarianJan 12, 2026

    The main thing I credit EVD with is teaching me disappointment from certain fun tantalizing things not turning out to be true. This prepared me to better cope with the X-Files and Lost TV shows, as well as nuclear fusion research and faster than light space travel :grumpycat:

  10. NeutralsimonjgreenDec 30, 2025

    I think this is less “Netflix vs old TV” and more episodic vs serialised, and the serialised form definitely isn’t new.

    Buffy is a great example: plenty of monster of the week episodes, but also season long arcs and character progression that rewarded continuity. The X-Files deliberately ran two tracks in parallel: standalone cases plus the mythology episodes. Lost was essentially built around long arcs and cliffhangers, it just had to make that work on a weekly broadcast cadence.

    What’s changed is the delivery mechanism, not the existence of serialisation. When your audience gets one episode a week, with mid-season breaks, schedule slips, and multi-year gaps between seasons, writers have to fight a constant battle to re-establish context and keep casual viewers from falling off. That’s why even heavily serialised shows from that era often kept an episodic spine. It’s a retention strategy as much as a creative choice.

    Streaming and especially season drops flip that constraint. When episodes are on demand and many viewers watch them close together, the time between chapters shrinks from weeks to minutes. That makes it much easier to sustain dense long-form narrative, assume recent recall, and let the story behave more like a novel than a syndicated procedural.

    So the pattern isn’t new. On demand distribution just finally makes the serialised approach work as reliably at scale as it always wanted to.

  11. MixedghaffDec 14, 2025

    While it had its flaws, Babylon5 was like that as well. Probably Lost even if it IMO went downhill latterly. I'm not really a fan of binge-watching. A lot of shows are constructed in a way that rewards a slow rollout even if that's not the modern style.

  12. NeutralgoncalombOct 18, 2025

    Cool project, but I also noticed the weird choice of #:~$ as a prompt, it uses almost half the width of the clock screen. And isn't # normally used to denote root shells? I don't think I ever saw it together with $.

    My favorite prompt is >: as a callback to the Swan computer in the TV show Lost (not sure if it's also used in early Apple computers).

  13. NeutralthinkingemoteOct 16, 2025

    I sometimes dip my feet into this universe and read the fan theories. The theories are part of the story, like the TV show LOST, the lack of explanations keeps people watching and making up their own interpretations. The resulting theories are kind of simplistic or superficial which isn't at all surprising considering the audience who watches it. We shouldn't expect deep criticism from children but we should expect children to understand deep concepts.

    More grown up analyses of it are not that enlightening and overall the phenomena doesn't work (for me) as art as a kind of nutritious food for the soul or mind...

  14. Negativegrues-dinnerOct 13, 2025

    Lost was a very valuable public service: it inoculated elder millennials against getting too invested into TV shows.

  15. Negativelike_any_otherOct 13, 2025

    > They don't make a whole lot of movies where all the characters just follow the rules, cause it wouldn't be fun to watch.

    Compare it to how they didn't follow the rules in Alien 1 then: they weren't supposed to let the facehugger victim into the spaceship due to quarantine rules. Ripley, acting as interim captain, tried to enforce that, but was overridden by Ash, the science officer [1]. A perfectly understandable action due to human empathy, but in this case, it is doubly justified since, as we later learn, Ash was an android, acting on secret orders to retrieve the alien specimen. Smart, reasonable actions from everyone involved, that didn't make anyone scream at the movie in frustration. And this was just a mining crew of ordinary workers, not the best scientific minds a multi-billionaire was able to assemble for a research expedition.

    Meanwhile the only justification for sticking his face into that evil-looking alien snake in Prometheus is that the guy was just a moron because he had fancy science equipment??? Also, Prometheus was written by Damon Lindelof - who also wrote Lost. The same Lost where all those mysteries turned out by series end to have been just random nonsense, with no explanation or justification ever given. Another point in favor of the incompetent writer thesis.

    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8cEcaK4-qA

  16. NeutralhaolezSep 30, 2025

    One use that occurred to me is that fans will be able to "fix" some movies that dropped the ball.

    For example, I saw a lot of people criticizing "Wish" (2023, Disney) for being a good movie in the first half, and totally dropping the ball in the last half. I haven't seen it yet, but I'm wondering if fans will be able to evolve the source material in the future to get the best possible version of it.

    Maybe we will even get a good closure for Lost (2004)!

    (I'm ignoring copyright aspects, of course, because those are too boring :D)

  17. NeutralTerr_Jul 21, 2025

    > Oh wow. That’s why I’ve not been able to appreciate SCP writings?

    I feel like there's a pattern (genre?) there that's been niche-popular for for 15-20 years now, which includes TV shows like Lost or Heroes or The Lost Room. It's some variation of magical-realism, for an audience that always wants more and more surprise or twists or weird juxtapositions of normal and abnormal, room for crafting and trading fan-theories and predictions.

    But eventually, it gets harder to keep up the balancing-act, and nobody's figured out how to end that kind of story in a way that satisfies, so the final twist is the lack of resolution.

  18. NeutraldevilbunnyJul 16, 2025

    I always figured that they just couldn't wrap their heads around a good way to monetize it.

    It was painfully slow on netbooks, but it did work, and we used to use it to live-comment on LOST episodes with two other couples that we're friends with (but live in different cities, so we couldn't just have a watch party every week).

  19. NeutralpugworthyJun 16, 2025

    Love the Lost (TV show) reference as well as the value of the constant.

    There is an additional Lost reference in https://developer.android.com/games/pgs/leaderboards

    Also https://developer.android.com/reference/android/service/autofill/CustomDescription

  20. NegativeCamperBob2Mar 20, 2025

    What sucker would pay for any TV shows or books or video games or anything if there's a comfy UI workflow or whatever I can download for free to make my own?

    I think it's about time the industry faced that risk. They have it coming in spades.

    For example, LOST wouldn't have been such a galactic waste of time if I could have asked an AI to rewrite the last half of the series. Current-generation AI is almost sufficient to do a better job than the actual writers, as far as the screenplay itself is concerned, and eventually the technology will be able to render what it writes.

    Call it... severance.

  21. Negativejs2Feb 3, 2025

    I went into Lost thinking it was sci-fi, but in the end, it was all fantasy. So for me, Lost never really answered its core mysteries and that was before it threw in the whole purgatory flash-sideways stuff. I did actually start to lose interest because it felt like the show was stringing us along, but hung in there for answers. Instead I felt like all I got were narrative dead ends and then a conclusion where most of them die. It was immensely unsatisfying.

    (I'm reflecting back now on 15 year old memories. I'm actually surprised to learn it aired from 2004-2010. Gosh, I remember this as being a show from the 90s.)

    It's also not like there were a lot of options for other shows to watch at the time. I'd never stay with a show like Lost today. I punted on Yellowjackets as soon as it started bringing fantasy into the story.

    You have to know that how a series wraps up is important to its viewers. A great or terrible finale can make or break how a show is later perceived. The Lost finale was the most disappointing of any show I've seen.

    Great finales I recall are The Americans and Justified.

    A terrible last book chapter or poor movie ending can ruin all that has come before for me. When deciding whether to read a book, I'll read the last chapter first. Spoilers don't ruin good stories for me. But bad conclusions do. And Lost's conclusion was just terrible. I'd rather it have been canceled.

    It's not like I need literal answers for everything. I love Mulholland Drive. But I felt like Lost spent six seasons just jerking me around.

    $0.02.

  22. Neutralethbr1Feb 2, 2025

    Here's the thing I don't get about post-finale annoyance at Lost -- how does the lack of plot resolution impact all of your enjoyment previous to the finale?

    You still enjoyed thinking of all the plot points after the second to last episode, no?

    And after the end of the first season?

    Those moments existed independent of how it ended.

    Sure, people having an issue with the ending and plot threads is maybe a reason not to start watching it now (I'd say it's still worth it...), but behaving as though somehow the ending invalidated all the realtime enjoyment is weird.

  23. PositivedrusepthFeb 2, 2025

    I'd argue that quality actually makes it an amazing show to binge. It wouldn't "work" in the current climate of one-episode-per-week with bountiful time to analyze and Internet sleuths/theorists often coming up with better plots than the actual writing in each next episode, but Lost promises high quality episode after high quality episode for you to, well, just get lost in.

    For anyone who hasn't seen it: you're in for a wild ride. Don't look up spoilers.

  24. MixedjbeningerFeb 2, 2025

    Having caught a few episodes since it ended, I think the real tragedy of LOST is how good each individual episode was in comparison to how terrible the overall planning was. It was engrossing during the episode, but any time spent outside that trying to tease out meaning or clues was just wasted time. Ostensible foreshadowing was really just "wouldn't it be cool if?" with no further thought behind it.

  25. NegativeWalterBrightSep 14, 2024

    The "franchise" novels are similar. I started reading the original James Bond books, but after a few it became clear that they were all the same formula, and I gave it up.

    TV miniseries suffer from the similar problems. See "Lost" for incoherency.

  26. NegativeFearNotDanielSep 10, 2024

    I'm pretty sure it was Bobby Ewing who turned out not to be dead at the end of the season, whereas JR was really shot (just not killed). However my memories of 1980s soaps are somewhat hazy, like most people here I was more interested in things like Z80/6502 assembly code than big-haired women catfighting in ludicrous shoulder pads [0].

    However, genuine thanks for the Lost finale spoiler, I never wanted to watch beyond season 2 anyway as it already became rather tedious.

    [0] https://youtu.be/BbDgPnXX9dQ?si=XecRP5goplpyEtIP

  27. PositiveRAM-bunctiousSep 8, 2024

    Conversely, I feel like Lost is massively in the opposite category. They did get their massive up-front commitment for 6 seasons while in season 2. The character and thematic arcs are probably some of the best I've seen in TV, while handling a massive ensemble cast.

    Heroes, I agree with you, no question.

  28. NeutralstandardUserMay 21, 2024

    I thought we learned everything we need to know about the importance of seatbelts on airplanes from the pilot episode of Lost!

  29. Negativeramses0Apr 30, 2024

    Lost would like to have a word. I rented the 6-season DVD set to watch while recovering from an injury and the ONLY good thing about that show was that the first time through you had to wait a week between episodes.

    Watching without the cliffhanger/socializing "what's next" discussion, and seeing them discard 87.3% of all plot points with reckless abandon made me hate the show after watching 2-3 seasons.

  30. NeutraldatasciencedApr 5, 2024

    A bit like Lost (TV Series)

  31. Neutralechelon_muskMar 11, 2024

    Parodied by Always Sunny in Philadelphia S09E08 "Flowers for Charlie".

    Also referenced by the TV show Lost:

    https://lostpedia.fandom.com/wiki/Books_on_Ben%27s_shelf

  32. Positiveethbr1Feb 29, 2024

    Graham Roland: https://m.imdb.com/name/nm3169366/

    Enjoyed LOST and Fringe.

    Jack Ryan seasons tended to start off strong, but then lose my interest as they got to the end. To be fair, that's also true of their source: the beginnings of Tom Clancy books are more interesting than their resolution.

    We'll see.

    Hopefully this doesn't go Altered Carbon and decide "This bit is too complicated for the audience, so we'll rewrite it." (Envoys were UN black ops used for civilian unrest suppression, some of whom defected, which was way more interesting than TV's "they're rebels")

    Edit: What happened to Gibson being historically unwilling to sell media rights, after dissatisfaction with previous attempts?

    And also, reference to the New Rose Hotel movie that was supposedly Gibson's fave: https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0133122/

  33. NeutraldacrynFeb 22, 2024

    There are two modes of watching TV in my opinion: intentional and casual

    Intentional: look for a certain show/movie, e.g. the weekly episode of House MD, Lost, Friends, HBO, ... -> This is the streaming war between Netflix, HBO, Disney, ...

    Casual: You turn on the tv with the aim to just browse around and relax, and get something accidentally interesting/amusing -> Youtube is king and more or less the only option here (and a bit of Nebula)

    The two together is the traditional TV

  34. NeutralCthulhu_Feb 13, 2024

    Close, the TV character was named after the philosopher (according to season 5, episode 7, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Locke_(Lost) ).

  35. NeutralPete_artenFeb 13, 2024

    I thought it was a recipe from John Locke for the TV series Lost.

  36. NegativefellinJan 25, 2024

    I'm with you on Lost. The worst garbage let down ever.

    YET. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Constant is still one of my favorite TV episodes ever.

  37. NegativefastballJan 25, 2024

    Fun analysis! Some thoughts and subjective opinions.

    - Westworld's very poor showing helped me realize what I think the major flaw is in this analysis, which is that it doesn't properly capture shows that have been on the decline for a while. In Westworld's case, the season scores are as follows: S1 8.86, S2 8.38, S3 80.25, S4 79.38. As you can see, there is a consistent decline from beginning to end, not just a disappointing ending. The series average is propped up by a very strong first season and goes downhill from there. Not sure how to best adjust the calculation to try to take this into account.

    - I found The Expanse ending disappointing because it ended mid-plot (which is less excusable than GoT since the authors actually finished the book series), but I also understand that they had to end it somehow and did pretty well with what they had. As a note to anyone that is enjoying The Expanse show but maybe hasn't finished it, I would definitely recommend stopping now and reading the books first, then watching the show. The books actually have a complete arc, but also the first six books pretty closely match the series, so if you watch the show first those books will be a bit of a slog to get through. Doing it the other way I think will work much better, because although you'll know the plot of most of the show in advance, the space battles and other visuals are so cool that it is still a fun watch. Then you can just kinda imagine what the rest of the books would look like if the'd actually made them into the show.

    - Ozark being in the Disaster Finale surprised me – I thought the ending was good (if not great). I guess viewers were hoping for a Breaking Bad-tier ending (given the subject matter and strong rest of the show) and so were let down.

    - Agree with the author that Lost is a surprise "satisfying finale". It is definitely in my top 5 most disappointing series endings (alongside the unsurprising disaster finales of GoT and Dexter).

    - Big Bang Theory had a finale that seemed right in line with the rest of the show, surprised by the delta that puts it into Transcendent territory. I have a sneaking suspicious that non-fans may've been watching other random episodes and rating them (negatively), thus dragging down the season average by a good bit. But non-fans would probably not be tuning in for the finale, thus leaving that score to be entirely dictated by fans.

  38. Mixeddclowd9901Jan 25, 2024

    I see we’re kindred spirits. Everyone talks about Vince Gilligan or David Simon. But no hats raised for Graham Yost.

    As far as LOST goes, I enjoyed the ride up until that very last episode, much like Battlestar Galactica. It’s a pity but I bet I could watch it all again and just skip the last ep and fill it with my head canon.

  39. Positiveshampto3Jan 25, 2024

    I really enjoyed this, well done. I love that there were surprises like the LOST finale not being as bad as you thought (statistically).

    Some obligatory personal hot takes:

    - the Scrubs finale should be considered the last episode of season 8 (which was great). Season 9 should be considered a spinoff series.

    - The Blacklist recently aired the series finale and I would consider it a disaster finale. It has ruined the series for me, and I no longer recommend it to friends.

    - I think most comedies aren’t ruined by a series finale. That’s probably due to the character over plot idea, as there usually isn’t a storyline I’m dying to finish.

  40. NeutralnewbalanceJan 5, 2024

    Made me think of that one Lost episode with the button

  41. NeutralcmrdporcupineJan 5, 2024

    Like the "the button" in the TV series Lost

  42. NeutraljiggawattsDec 5, 2023

    Is it though?

    2004 is the first year I remember watching a HD widescreen TV show (Lost). There were a handful of test clips and the like earlier, but they were a rare thing. E.g.: there's a HD video taken of the aftermath of 9/11 because the operator was just learning to use this (at the time) brand new technology.

    That lasted about a decade, and then 4K become a thing around the 2013-2014 timeframe. I got a Sony 4K TV in late 2013 and a Dell 4K monitor in 2014.

    However, both of those were standard dynamic range, albeit with a fairly "wide" colour gamut.

    I got my first OLED HDR display in 2021, and an OLED HDR TV in 2022.

    In other words, every "generation" of television technologies has lasted about a decade before being superseded by something significantly newer and better.

    Display technology still has some ways to go. No current consumer panel reproduces 100% of the Rec.2020 colour gamut. Similarly, there are no consumer panels that can reproduce the full HDR10 or Dolby Vision brightness range of up to 10,000 nits. There are 8K displays that are close to that target spec, but they're either one-off experimental models or more expensive than a luxury car.

    A decade from now, around 2033 mark, I full expect something like VR technology to have replaced TVs for many people. Apple's new headset (available next year!) will set a new quality bar that no traditional TV can ever hope to match, such as an extremely wide field of view, stereo, and very bright HDR in combination. Sure, they're expensive now, but after a decade of further development? They'll be amazing and cheap.

  43. NeutralOfSanguineFireNov 20, 2023

    I wonder if networks are comfortable with open-ended series because it lets them switch to targeting a more profitable demographic as the show runs.

    For example, Lost began with no particular arc planned out, just some stabs here and there at continuity. That allowed writers in season three to heavily emphasize a love triangle among the three most romantic characters (Kate, Jack and Sawyer) which won the show a huge following from women in a key US advertising demographic, even as some male nerds were disappointed.

  44. Neutralshrimp_emojiOct 29, 2023

    Lost

    Sale

    Fallacy

    There's no way I'd see anything I download for free otherwise. I don't even have a TV, and I'm not getting one of those spyware shit boxes any time soon. The thought of subscribing to some service which leases content to me in exchange for paying them back indefinitely is a joke to me; I'll never do it for anything.

    If they sold DRM-free digital movies and shows, like they do for music (and sometimes books), it'd be a different story. I like to own files and store and play them however I want. I don't pirate music because it's easier to search and buy it DRM-free on an online store.

    Also, "digital piracy" makes as much sense as "digital murder". Piracy is robbing people of physical goods because pirates can't copy them for free ad infinitum. If they could, we'd be in some post-scarcity paradise, where "piracy" wouldn't even have violent criminal connotations. And what we're trying to do is impose the same tyrannies of physical scarcity on the paradise we have in cyberspace. Because of a fallacious urge to get more $$$ (in a specific, paranoid business model that ironically decreases your sales)! :D

  45. PositivexoxxalaSep 11, 2023

    We had a viewing party for the premiere. To be honest, we were more looking forward to Bruce Campbell’s “Adventures of Brisco County, Jr”, which premiered just before the “X-Files” (and is now sadly forgotten).

    The “X-Files” hooked us right from the start. The only show that even came close to that first episode was “Lost” many years later. Most first season episodes were strong, with some downright classics, and the show was captivating from the beginning. Helps that the two leads were well cast and the writing was way better than the typical genre series.

    (Two of the X-Files writers went off to showrun the criminally underrated “Space: Above and Beyond”, too. Without the success of X-Files, we wouldn’t have gotten that.)

  46. NeutraljmharveyAug 16, 2023

    It depends on what you're trying to optimize for, and how much you're trying to optimize it.

    If what you're concerned about is maximizing the odds of getting a jackpot, all you need to do is pick 27 different numbers. Say, 1-2-3-4-5-6 through 1-2-3-4-5-32.

    If what you're concerned about is maximizing the odds of getting a jackpot that you don't need to share with anyone else, you shouldn't play any numbers that you think anyone else is likely to play, such as the numbers in this paper, six numbers that form a straght line on the play slip (vertical, horizontal, or diagonal), any six consecutive numbers, the winning numbers from any recent drawing[1], or famous lottery numbers like 4-8-15-16-23-42 (the mystical numbers from the TV show "Lost.")

    If what you're concerned about is guaranteeing a small win of some kind, then use some rotation of the numbers in this paper.

    If what you're concerned about is minimizing the variance in the outcomes you achieve, then you'll want a more complicated formula for picking tickets, taking into account the values of the prizes for matching 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 winning numbers. And if you're specifically looking for a set of tickets that's robust to operational interruptions in your ticket purchasing (what happens if the lottery system goes offline when you've bought ten of your 27 tickets, and you can't buy the last 17!?)[2].

    But if one of the things you care about is the fully-loaded cost of buying 27 tickets, you'll almost certainly want to buy 27 random tickets, because picking specific numbers takes mental and physical effort, and 27 random tickets are unlikely to have enough overlap that it will have a significant impact on your likelihood of winning a large prize. The main downside of buying 27 random tickets is that it makes checking whether you won take more effort than if you already had your list of numbers.

    And on that note, if what you care about is the fully-loaded cost of buying and redeeming your tickets, one of the best things you can do is the opposite of what this paper is about: you want to MINIMIZE the likelihood of winning a prize. Going to the store to cash a ticket takes effort, but it isn't much more effort to claim 27 prizes vs one single prize. So if you have a choice between a 1-in-27 chance of collecting 27 $2 prizes vs a 100% chance of collecting one $2 prize, you're better off with the former, simply because you can probably avoid an extra trip to the store.

    [1] Unless you think there's a problem with the RNG system. IIRC about 15 years ago there was a state that drew the same lottery numbers 3 days in a row because they introduced a new computer PRNG and part of their runbook introduced the same seed for every draw; after the third consecutive draw they fixed the issue.

    [2] I've had this happen to me, though the problem was that my bank froze my account partway through buying tickets, and I was buying a lot more than 27 tickets. The most famous/infamous lottery syndicate in modern history, a group from Australia that tried to buy every combination in the Virginia lottery in the early 1990s, also ran into logistical issues and was unable to finish buying their complete set of tickets, but they got lucky and hit the jackpot anyway.

  47. NeutralhsjqllzlfkfJun 25, 2023

    > Nobody is watching old sitcoms, but new people watch Lost everyday even though that also got badly affected by quantity requirements due to hype of the day.

    That's funny because I know multiple people who re-watched Seinfeld and Curb multiple times, but I haven't heard anyone talk about Lost ever since it ended.

  48. NeutralwhatyesaidJun 25, 2023

    Black Mirror is largely written by one guy, that's why. It's better they make Black Mirror the highest quality. That way, in 20 years, people will watch it, it will be new to them, and still hold up.

    Build an evergreen catalogue. Nobody is watching old sitcoms, but new people watch Lost everyday even though that also got badly affected by quantity requirements due to hype of the day.

  49. NegativecratermoonJun 12, 2023

    'this book': Maureen Ryan’s Burn it Down, detailing her experiences in a TV show's (Lost) toxic working environment.

  50. Neutral1letterunixnameMay 10, 2023

    That's my instinct as well. The local university had a GGM month that was more like 2 years during the pandemic.

    Rushdie also comes to mind. And I can't help but connect a number of similarities between The Satanic Verses and the TV series Lost.

  51. NeutralafavourApr 26, 2023

    It's definitely a thing. I remember when Lost first aired I had lengthy discussions every week with friends, I even logged into Lostpedia to browse, exchange theories etc.

    By comparison, the first Netflix show I remember really watching was House of Cards. Tried to have conversations with friends about it but inevitably you'd start with "oh, what episode are you on? Is that the one with the...? So you haven't seen...?".

    Discussing an entire season when it's complete is definitely less fulfilling than discussing each episode. Depending on the show, of course.

  52. NeutralusrusrApr 1, 2023

    I wouldn't bet on ego-stroking as the main driver: my impression is that much of this stuff is marketing strategy, to drive internet discussion. Remember "Lost"? That strategy might have a stronger effect on the on the next installment than on the current one, but that won't stop them.

    I explicitly write "internet" because that's what can be measured. And those studios probably have a metric for that and writers go full Campbell's Law on it. I write Campbell's, not Goodhart's, because I suspect that it still works just fine, economically.

    (I think I know which kind of movies you mean and I don't feel drawn to those at all. Perhaps in part because of all the "clever change" drama that I read about and that I know would be completely lost to me, so maybe it's not that far from Goodhart's after all?)

  53. NegativethenoblesunfishMar 10, 2023

    The obvious solution is to wait until series are done before watching them, if lack of narrative closure upsets more than watching with everyone else excites you. E.g one of these days I might get around to The Wire or Breaking Bad, but probably not Lost or Game of Thrones or Twin Peaks, because I'm aware people were annoyed at how they ended. On the other hand I'm perfectly happy with seasons 1-3 of The Office or season 1 of Stranger things, or Season 1 of Severance even though it was a total life hanger, so it's not impossible to make something that's good even if it's not clear how long it'll run.

  54. NegativeStillBoredMar 10, 2023

    The problem isn't shows that don't end, but ones that keep dragging out the 1-2 season plot line because it was popular (lost, stranger things, etc).

    I'm fine with a plot that is progressing and things are being answered (the expanse, b5, etc) or just a plain old serial like the original star trek or the simsons where each episode stands on its own. But these shows where the plot just never quite gets resolved because yet another thing happens to snatch it away at the last moment quickly become tiring. Or like stranger things the whole things is nice and complete with all the lose ends tied, and then oh, lets do season 2 because its our best show and we want the money. This BTW seems to have been most movies since ~2000s where everything is a sequel, prequel or comic universe movie. Its like hollywood has forgotten how to buy book rights that aren't themselves giant economic works already (harry potter anyone?).

  55. NeutralMulticompJan 24, 2023

    Those numbers are a plot coupon from the television show "Lost" which involves an airplane crashing on a deserted island...that turns out to be not so deserted after all.

  56. NeutraldevnullbrainJan 16, 2023

    A quirk of human psychology is that we value ongoing storylines as if they were finished storylines. When we watch a Lost or read a Song Of Ice And Fire, we relate the twists and turns to finished stories we already know - or even to real life. We take it as a given that the plot thread spun in episode 3 will, somewhere, have a satisfying conclusion. The method that put the gun on the wall must satisfy physical and logical laws. So we become invested.

    As a result, writers are incentivised to write convoluted, twisting, mysterious threads.

    They're not required to finish them.

  57. NegativeevaneliasDec 20, 2022

    I really don't think that's a fair take on The Leftovers. It was adapted from a novel, which season 1 follows the plot of pretty closely and completely. The remaining two seasons are entirely new plot but iirc the author was involved.

    The novel doesn't resolve the core mystery. I won't spoil whether the show does, but it's kind of beside the point anyway. One of the core themes is how people grapple with sudden loss, something beyond their control, something unknowable. In any case the show resolves itself with a satisfying amount of closure in three seasons. Much fewer open threads and plot holes than LOST. The unresolved aspects of The Leftovers are genuinely thought-provoking and deep.

    I wholly agree with Wikipedia's summary: "The first season received mostly positive reviews. However, the second and third seasons were highly acclaimed, with many critics referring to The Leftovers as one of the greatest television series of all time, with particular praise for its writing, directing, acting (particularly Theroux’s and Coon's) and thematic depth."

    You say "The finale comes only when there's no more money to be made" ... that doesn't jive with a final season having a 99% on Rotten Tomatoes and 98% on Metacritic!

  58. Negativesomehnacct3757Dec 20, 2022

    I avoid anything by Abrams or Lindelof at this point because they are emblematic of this writing formula. You can see it in Lindelof's The Leftovers, Abrams' Star Wars, and of course LOST. It's also present in any pilot they help create, for example Once Upon A Time.

    I agree with your deconstruction: these shows are optimized for selling an engaging pilot episode with only a back of the napkin roadmap for the rest of the show. The finale comes only when there's no more money to be made.

    I'm very excited by writers like Baran bo Odar and Jantje Friese who are able to write interwoven plots comparable to LOST, but with cohesive endings. Check out Dark for an example.

  59. PositivewoobarDec 19, 2022

    Interesting. I liked the original run of the Lost. I've liked it even more when I rewatched it a few times. For me the characters were the most important part of the show, and writers did a great job developing them. I also see a common thread about "good first seasons", but theses seasons were more about ever growing mysteries. Second half of the run gave us great episodes like The Constant, LaFleur, or Ab Aeterno. Me caring for the characters is what made them great.

    And writing is what makes me care about these characters. The mysteries were fun and most of them resolved by the end of the show, but for me it is a lesser part of the show.

  60. NegativeravenstineDec 19, 2022

    Some people still think Lost was good after around the first 3 seasons. Like you, I gave up after that because it was pretty clear that the show would be nothing but red herrings and new distractions.

    When my parents tuned in to watch the final episode, I predicted that the ending would be bullshit and not resolve anything. That's exactly what happened. Yet so many people who watched the show all the way through are in denial to this day.

    > I could probably write something really mean about Westworld here but I'll just instead say that it's really, really, really sad that they canceled it after season 1.

    Funny, because by the end of Westworld season 1 my first thought was that it was just going to be like Lost. The "maze" gave me "hatch" vibes, and I noped out permanently.

  61. MixedIzkataDec 19, 2022

    > It's exactly why I've never revisited Lost, even though I loved the first few seasons. The suspense and mystery never paid off, and it was too important a piece of the entire show to bother trying again.

    I'm not gonna claim it was good or anything, but Lost was more than just the show - and a lot of the payoff for the island's mysteries came from the ARG The Lost Experience - https://lostpedia.fandom.com/wiki/The_Lost_Experience

    > The narrative for the The Lost Experience was designed to be a parallel story line not part of the TV show. Considering the deep mythology to LOST, the Experience acted as a way to cover some background that could not be feasibly addressed in such depth on the main show. In particular, TLE developed the backstory to the DHARMA Initiative and its parent company, the Hanso Foundation. It also established some clues about the Island and the true meaning of the numbers.

  62. Negativevanilla_nutDec 19, 2022

    This jives with my theory of what makes bad TV: bad writing. It's exactly why I've never revisited Lost, even though I loved the first few seasons. The suspense and mystery never paid off, and it was too important a piece of the entire show to bother trying again.

    Oddly, Battlestar Galactica has provided a pleasant rewatch every year or two for me for the past decade. It has good writing within each episode, and even though it doesn't hold up in the final season, the writing is overall satisfying enough that I don't avoid it entirely.

    I could probably write something really mean about Westworld here but I'll just instead say that it's really, really, really sad that they canceled it after season 1. I'm sure the writers would have built satisfyingly on the world established in season 1 instead of jumping off the rails and expanding into unnecessary niches of convoluted storytelling.

  63. NegativeevaneliasDec 16, 2022

    > I was not holding out much hope when "Damon Lindelof producer of Lost, decided what we really needed was for him to create a new TV series in the Watchman universe"

    Well, Lindelof was also the showrunner for The Leftovers, which was a profoundly moving and well-made show. He also co-wrote the Alien prequel Prometheus. I wasn't too surprised that his Watchmen show was good!

    Anyway, as for Neuromancer... Graham Roland was showrunner for Dark Winds, which was pretty solid, so maybe that bodes well. On the other hand, his writing work on Lost was entirely just on the final season, which was a nonsensical mess, so who knows.

  64. Negativebrd529Oct 31, 2022

    Super 8 has a coherent reveal of the mystery box. Lost did not and disappointed at the end.

    The kelvin timeline from when he rebooted Star Trek is sort of mystery box but then we learn who Nero is in a coherent way early on as well. I did not like that JJ destroyed Vulcan and frankly made a confusing alternate, darker timeline at all. The reboots are good movies but they were not good Star Trek movies. Missed opportunities to explore the Roddenberry style themes of humanity and deep moral questions under a backdrop of optimism.

  65. MixedsquarefootOct 31, 2022

    They also had to drag Lost production a lot, if memory serves during season 3, due to the writers strike back then that essentially left the production with no material for some time. Personally I loved Lost first seasons, then it rapidly went downhill, and recall the disappointment after watching the series finale. The series however in my opinion established a turning point in how drama is shown in TV series; I see a clear pattern in "before Lost" and "after Lost" series, so kudos to the creators.

  66. NegativeBrian_K_WhiteOct 31, 2022

    And if having no plan wasn't damning enough, the compounding crime was not at least being as good storytellers along the way as X Files.

    I couldn't stand all the unbelivable behavior. When you don't know anything about someone yet, then you can be forgiven for falling for deception from them. But once you do catch them doing something inexcusable, why the f have you forgotten all about that an episode or two later? And then act all devastated when the already known bad guy is bad again later... Seemed to be happening in all different directions with all different characters at different times. I never watched more than a handful of episodes before I wrote it off as pointless contrived drama resulting mostly from inexplicable behavior from the victim(s)-of-the-day.

    Just to be clear, X Files was never my favorite show, just another show that ended up having no plan, but mostly didn't piss you off for being stupid, so much so that it could get away with being aimless for a long time.

    Another way to say it, X Files ended up being pointless, but it didn't feel pointless all along the way. Lost felt pointless immediately and never didn't (for the admittedly short time I gave it).

  67. PositivesircastorOct 31, 2022

    I watched a video wherein Damon Lindelof talks about how they wanted to end the show after 3 seasons. With its success, ABC wanted the show to go on for 10. Apparently the network kept negotiating, not understanding the creators weren’t playing hardball, they wanted to end the show.

    There has been plenty of hit shows prior to Lost, but I think it was one of the forerunners of the modern TV show, where the producers were planning on making something complete rather than just an infinite ratings monster.

  68. PositivellagerlofOct 5, 2022

    I definetely want more episodes of LOST. I would drop the infamous season 6 and generate more seasons following the 5th season.

  69. Positiveokdood64Sep 18, 2022

    Agreed. There's still older shows, or even new simple "popcorn-flick" movies that I can watch without subtitles just fine, because of a simpler plot line and cast of characters.

    For example, compare a show like Lost against Westworld. With Lost each scene was so drawn out, that even if you missed a line, you'd be able to figure out what's going on from the general context.

  70. NeutralpipiscrewSep 9, 2022

    1992 Basic Instinct https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0103772/

    1993 The Fugitive https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0106977/

    1993 The X-Files https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0106179/

    1999 Sopranos (series) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0141842/

    2004 Lost (series) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0411008

    2004 Desperate Housewives (series) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0410975/

  71. NeutralorevSep 7, 2022

    Stargate did have an overarching plot, but was still very episodic (like many other shows at the time). To me, Farscape was far more in line with the new idea of a continuous narrative.

    This type of TV was enabled by TiVo/DVRs. Before then, producers couldn’t rely on people not missing an episode, because if they did they’d be lost. (Not coincidentally, Lost was also enabled TiVos for the same reason).

  72. NeutralkrappAug 22, 2022

    Ironically, Episode 847, the banned Wicked Witch episode, was recently found.

    All things Lost: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKk_MAmT2Uc

    The actual episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21btSNc6tIU

  73. NeutralbrightballAug 21, 2022

    Thinking back to shows like Lost and Walking Dead as examples. The community aspect of episode based shows is better IMO.

  74. NeutraltokaiJul 29, 2022

    I don't buy it. Dwayne Johnson one the highest-grossing and highest-paid actors of the 10s is bald. Along him you have a host of action actors that are bald. Top tv shows like Lost and Breaking Bad featured bald main characters. Just to name a few.

  75. Positivead404b8a372f2b9Jul 22, 2022

    It's a conversation I've had with colleagues, and I've heard it repeated online (red letter media) recently. I think it's slowly entering public consciousness and some streaming platforms have taken notice and are returning to episodic releases.

    Looking back from a personal standpoint, communal watching and discussion of those shared cultural phenomenons really marked my life. The most emblematic recent examples would be Lost and Westworld I think.

    But it's funny your comment about TV blockbusters, it shows it's been going on for much longer and we didn't realize it. My mother use to tell me often about her childhood in the 50s, how every week-end they would show the big blockbuster westerns with John Wayne on TV for a whole afternoon, and it's what everyone would watch and discuss afterwards. And it's just now that I make the connection with this phenomenon.

    Looking back at my childhood, I can't remember TV being anything but trash. (I think it varies wildly from country to country.) There were no blockbusters on TV, and Cinema played the role of providing that shared cultural experience.

    Now Cinema is dead and we're going to streaming. Who knows where it will end, but maybe there will be room for that experience to continue in another form.

  76. NeutralsquarefootJun 27, 2022

    What a surprise: TV shows are made to reflect the current public perception of the world so they appeal more watchers. News at 11.

    Star Trek isn't alone in this shift. Budget and special effects aside, could anyone imagine the remake of Battlestar Galactica (a show I didn't like at all, btw), Breaking Bad, Lost etc. in the 80s along the cheesy shows of that time? Of course not as they could only be conceived after a certain set of events, which very likely are 9/11 and the following absurd Iraq invasion; those events changed everything in what we think of the world and the people around us, including our own governments. Actually, TV shows were already transitioning to a less optimistic view of our society, which, speaking of SciFi, is clearly noticeable in B5 and DS9, but I think those events marked a milestone.

    Also, from the 80s to the early 2000s, the biggest change affecting our society has been the ability to be online and engage in public discussion with others, which brought even more stimuli and opportunities -whether for the good or bad it's completely subjective- further accelerating our normal social evolution; the world has changed virtually centuries in 20 years. I couldn't imagine anyone seriously thinking of shooting today a remake of The A-Team series in which they maintain its original thousands bullets shot every episode but nobody dies format.

  77. MixedghaffJun 21, 2022

    Yes, I assume that Lost--for whatever its problems--was essentially a child of Internet discussions plus TiVo/DVRs. Babylon 5 was even earlier but it was pretty niche and many fans (like myself) were content to timeshift on VCRs by then.

    And, yes, syndication was a significant revenue stream that basically didn't work unless you could randomly drop into a Law and Order episode or pretty much any sitcom.

  78. MixedjoshocarMay 22, 2022

    One issue is that they don't keep writers and show runners around. Each season gets new writers so any magic there was in season one of lost in season two. The tone is the same but you lose something when you bring on me people. The do this because of the lag between seasons and the fact that they don't hire on writers, but rather contract them on a per season basis.

  79. NegativeajmurmannMay 22, 2022

    I'm a fan of shows or movies being as long as they need to be. To Old To Die Young is a great example of a show that is bold and does this. Episodes range anywhere from 30 to 90+ minutes.

    That said, for shows that have a continuous, overreaching storyline I'm highly suspect of the writers having no idea how the thing is gonna end. Sure, in some lucky cases it works out super well, but in other cases it gets us unsatisfying stuff that undermines the show like with Lost or Battlestar Galactica. Come up with the story arch and tell the story. Please don't keep stretching the thing out endlessly and end it when it's bad or the crew wants to move on. That's fine with shows that have disconnected episodes, but for modern shows or can ruin the whole thing and leaves me feel like I wasted a ton of time.

  80. NegativeminismMay 14, 2022

    Dark was infuriating to watch. Visually stunning, great characters and performances, but ultimately an intentionally obfuscated and meandering story that only ends up disappointing you.

    It's kind of similar to Westworld season 1 or Lost -- there's this style of storytelling where you drop a bunch of interesting clues to lead you towards possible theories about whats really going on, and then all of those threads are dropped on the floor as if they never mattered. I find it abusive and disrespectful to the viewer.

  81. NegativekemayoMay 3, 2022

    Abrams was an interesting (read: poor) choice for the final film, because he's famous for setting up compelling plots and not sticking the landing. See: Lost. His whole "mystery box" thing is great at pulling in viewers, but he's never been able to come up with something that works when he's forced to finally open the box.

    Amusing juxtaposition in critical reception:

    Article about his mystery box thing before Rise: https://www.success.com/jj-abrams-and-the-unopened-mystery-box/

    Article about his mystery box thing after Rise: https://screenrant.com/star-wars-rise-skywalker-abrams-mystery-box-bad/

  82. NeutralghaffApr 22, 2022

    This happened irrespective of Netflix streaming. Breaking Bad, The Sopranos, BSG, Lost, etc. The thing is serial was fairly annoying if you had to be in front of the TV on Wednesday at 9pm every week to watch something. People would do it for a must-watch miniseries. But as soon as you could do on-demand it was a nice format for a lot of things.

  83. PositivedeclnzApr 22, 2022

    Yes. Though stepping back a little further, I'd add (with some qualification):

    24 (which perhaps opened my eyes to TV overtaking film in new ways) Lost Buffy

    And then further still:

    The X Files This Life (UK only?)

  84. NegativelupireMar 17, 2022

    "complete story" doesn't exist.

    Every story has details not followed up on. Just like real life.

    LOST had an ending but it was terrible because the story kept piling on more bullshit.

    GOT TV had an ending and it was terrible.

    ASOIAF is a short chronicle (yet still full of many great characterizations, episodes, and plot lines) of characters coming and going through the world. Some plot lines start in the middle, some end in the middle, because neither us nor GRRM are immortal beings.

  85. NegativeraszFeb 12, 2022

    >overarching mystery story

    Its like Lost or Battlestar Galactica, a lot of nonsense they make up on the spot one episode ahead of filming.

  86. NeutralsoftwarebewareJan 25, 2022

    Your story is all too common. Have you ever seen that old TV show Lost? I think these kinds of stories are the reason why pointlessly pushing the button in that show was such a popular and memorable trope. Things that people "have to do" but no one knows why, and they just keep doing it over and over...because what if? I feel your pain

  87. NegativelelagJan 4, 2022

    > I enjoy the fact that these show get a limited run of 10 - 30 episodes. The stories are focused and have less unresolved threads in the show. Compare this to modern Doctor Who, ST: Discovery, or Lost, where you have story details that don't get resolved for seasons, if ever.

    I agree 100% with that. That's probably one of the reason that I've been watching more Korean series lately. They seem to be very standardised to tell a complete story in exactly 16 episodes. Starting and finishing a series is a known 16 to 20 hours time commitment. In comparison, starting any new US series is a scary proposition. If it's successful, it might get 10 seasons and 2 spin-off. If it's not, it might stop abruptly at anytime with no resolution to the story.

  88. NegativeasciimovJan 4, 2022

    My partner has been watching a ton of foreign dramas and romcom series the past few years. It started with Midnight Diner and Samurai Gourmet on Netflix, then to K-Dramas, and now we have a few Asian Languages streaming services.

    My partner enjoys the fact that these aren't meant to appeal to everybody. They have tons of genres and settings that you can pick and choose. She also enjoys that these shows aren't designed to appeal to the general American audience and tastes and give a taste of other cultures. For example, sex is less overt due to many of these countries having decency laws. (Think Hays Code for older American movies, some things have to be implied instead of shown)

    I enjoy the fact that these show get a limited run of 10 - 30 episodes. The stories are focused and have less unresolved threads in the show. Compare this to modern Doctor Who, ST: Discovery, or Lost, where you have story details that don't get resolved for seasons, if ever.

    If you have Netflix and want to try some more lighter shows I can recommend: Strong Girl Bong-soon, Love O2O (series or movie), and My Holo Love.

  89. NeutralskinnymuchDec 11, 2021

    Totally unimportant. Why do you classify GOT and Lost as nerd sensations? GoT I cam understand. It comes from a geeky book series and didn’t start off as the monster it became. GoT also did things [mainstream] tv or media in general did not do. Like killing characters off.

    Lost on the other hand was a mainstream viral popular show. Shows like Heroes for a small period of time had related hype. Or a film like Inception. South Park did a good take on Inception before they even watched it themselves. It may be dressed as intellectual, nerdy fodder. The hype of making them seem nerdier than they are is my anal geeky issue.

    This entire comment is silly. I’m trying to rationalize my anal elitism with what really good media is. As if I or any one should be the arbiter for such things.

    —-

    Thanks for the Nebula name drop. The price is really cheap with coupon codes. I’m surprised Dropout is doing well enough. I thought it was effectively dead as the rest of College Humor is. Luckily CH’s big impact on my life, Jake & Amir web seriess, was sold back to the namesakes.

  90. Positiveavl999Nov 28, 2021

    Weird article

    > How much do we need to know about a TV detective to be invested in a whodunnit?

    There are tons of shows that do exactly that. Turn on a random CBS procedural and you will get exactly that- 40 mins of by the numbers crime solving with a smartass quip thrown in every once in while.

    On the other hand there are options for those who are bored by the repetitiveness of crime solving in these shows and get more invested when the characters in the show are full blown people not just vehicles for crimes to happen or be solved (say True Detective (Season 1) or Broadchurch).

    I am sure there is a market for both these things and options for viewers that are interested in either option (or even both depending on their mood). Let the free market sort it all out. Not sure why the author of this article is so outraged.

    > As one of the showrunners of Lost, Damon Lindelof was as responsible as anybody for the backstory epidemic, creating a time-hopping narrative tangle that concluded with a crushing disappointment.

    > On his next show, The Leftovers, he learned his lesson and leaned into his characters’ reactions to the mysterious disappearance of 2% of humanity rather than the reasons for the event. Trauma was the cake rather than the icing, and therefore taken seriously. In becoming so comfortable with complexity and ambiguity, Lindelof made one of the finest shows of the decade.

    Another strange argument, even if some people were disappointed by the LOST ending it was still one of the most popular shows of its era and is to this day considered to be one of the best shows ever made both in the critic and regular person circles.

    On the other hand The Leftovers was widely panned in its first Season and was never a popular success. While it has its ardent fans, it's never going to come close to having the popular success or impact on tv as LOST did.

    I like both shows. Like everything else it is not one or the other, you can have both and let people choose.

    This entire article comes across as: "these are the things I like and anyone who likes what I don't like is wrong and everyone should only make art that fits my personal sensibilities" eventhough nothing is stopping the author to keep liking the things he likes and let others enjoy things they like. There is no shortage of content out there.

  91. Positiveglobalise83Nov 25, 2021

    I recall watching a TV series just like that 20 years ago: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_(game_show)#UK_version. Was very entertaining. I do think it has potential in the modern vlog world as well.

  92. NeutraldddwOct 12, 2021

    Intergalactic number station makes sense. Starting to sound like an episode of Lost

  93. NeutralsplintercellSep 25, 2021

    I don't know if others share a similar belief as me about memory and understanding, but I see it as the following model:

    Imagine your mind as a planet full of water (like earth) and some of its area is covered in land. There are asteroids flying into its gravitational pull and landing on the planet.

    If the asteroid falls out completely out in the water then it will drown. If repeatedly a lot of asteroids fall in the middle of the ocean around each other, they may be able to become an island.

    If it falls on the continent it becomes part of it, if it falls close to the continent then it also becomes a part of it, provided there is a connection to the continent.

    The continent represents our mind. The asteroids represent data. The connected part of the land represents our understanding (i.e information).

    If you read a piece of information such as: "Mackresh Holdings own 21% of Yojing Lee Corp, and the right to coniunctis viribus."

    This is an asteroid landing in the ocean, unconnected to any land, and is likely to drown (one way to avoid that is to keep landing more and more asteroids to the same spots, until it builds up into an island, this is what repetition based learning does).

    On the other hand if these topics can be connected to your 'continent' (i.e the body of understanding), then its far less likely to drown. For instance (completely made up) if you learned that Yojing Lee Corp owns election machines of South Korea and Mackresh holdings is a company fully owned by Mark Zuckerberg (the founder of Facebook), and the right to 'coniunctis viribus' means the right to merge companies under Korean law.

    Similarly if you learn that Mark Zuckerberg acquired stake in that company because he wants to connect FB to the election machines, and he wants to do that by merging the two companies, this arbitrary fact has been connected to your existing body of knowledge.

    If it wasn't Zuckerberg but the fictional Korean business tycoon Woo-Jun Paik from some TV show then you'd lose this connection to this fact (and the information might be Lost more easily again) as it will become an island of its own. On the other hand if you learn that this TV show was 'Lost' (part of the Korean soap opera storyline), then it might make some connection again, and that island could be found again.

  94. NegativeteddyhSep 14, 2021

    I criticize the web page for being clickbaity and cryptic, but you go all “It’s supposed to be cryptic!”. I swear, it’s like listening to fans of Lost trying to explain why it’s fun watching a TV show where nothing makes any sense but continually hints at things making sense later, but it never does.

    A reasonable person can explain things in a straightforward manner. If someone instead chooses to be cryptic and veiled, perhaps in a misguided attempt at being theatrical, they open themselves up to criticism. Which I provided. Quite reasonably too, I thought, since the text preferred to be cryptic and clickbaity instead of explaining anything.

    If someone really prefers to be theatrical (like in actual theater or movies), they could still preface it with a reasonable explanation that they can’t give away the twist in the synopsis.

  95. NeutraldragonwriterAug 18, 2021

    > The “Lost” miniseries

    Is this different than the Lost series of 6 seasons and 121 episodes?

    Or is this just an unusual use of the prefix “mini-”?

  96. MixedWalterBrightAug 18, 2021

    The "Lost" miniseries is enjoyable only once you accept that it simply doesn't make any sense. Just enjoy the moments.

    Though "Lost" was on to something with the dialog "it's a snowglobe!" They could have followed up on that, leading to a satisfying conclusion, but as with everything else, it just went nowhere.

  97. NegativetsimionescuAug 18, 2021

    I think this has become a modern trend especially in long-form art (television, book series), where it's been noticed that mystery plots are a good way of attracting and maintaining an audience with much less effort than crafting a satisfying narrative takes. That's how we get things like Lost, Battlestar Galactica, or the Game of Thrones TV show (perhaps the ASOIAF books as well, but time will tell), as two prime examples of captivating the audience without a clear plan.

  98. NegativenonameiguessAug 18, 2021

    It's interesting that you're citing a film made 60 years before the 21st century as an example of a 21st century trend. If anything, we seem to be moving in the opposite direction. Star Wars tried to explain where the force comes from. Christopher Nolan includes ridiculously detailed exposition dumps explaining everything (in spite of the ambiguous ending of Inception, everything about how the world worked was explained in meticulous detail). Even the canonical mystery box master himself, Damon Lindelof, took to heart all the backlash about the non-explanation ending of Lost. Nobody expected The Leftovers would ever give an explanation of what caused the Sudden Departure, but it did.

    Heck, even David Lynch himself gave Laura Palmer an origin story in Twin Peaks: The Return! And even where he tried to preserve some mystery, the companion book by Mark Frost explained all of it.

  99. Neutralcoolguy132435Jul 20, 2021

    I am so happy to see mention of Senet anywhere - I have been addicted since I saw it featured on an episode of Lost back in highschool. About a decade ago, I found a Windows version that supported online play, that I played heavily with my then long distance girlfriend. I introduced the game to my family, and my mom even sewed together a fabric board for playing during flights. We play as a family any time I visit. A few weeks ago, I started writing up a text based version of it in Java, but put it on hold for the moment.

  100. NeutraltnorthcuttJul 13, 2021

    Considering individual episodes of shows go for ~$3 USD (I just checked in the Apple TV app for an episode of LOST), $4.99/month is far cheaper than buying individual episodes for a show with weekly releases.

    Obviously you don't own the episodes, then, so there is that, I suppose.

  101. PositiverunawaybottleJun 19, 2021

    You need to watch camp fire stories. A great example is the tv show Lost. None of it makes sense, but the camp fire nature of the story telling keeps you gripped. Trust me on this one, watch Lost and you’ll get what I’m talking about.

  102. Negativedb48xJun 3, 2021

    It’s not about how long a show was on the air, it has more to do with how interconnected the episodes are and whether the work has a story arc that was planned in advance. In a purely episodic work, you can experience the episodes in any order and have the same enjoyment. In a purely serial work, the order of the episodes (or should we call them installments?) matters a lot.

    Star Trek was episodic. No matter what happens in one episode, most things remained status quo for the next. There were some slow changes to the cast, but for the most part you could watch the episodes in any order.

    TNG was book–ended by their dealings with Q, but that story had no closure and only took up about four or five episodes out of 7 years. There were some other stories like that as well, stories that were longer than an episode but much shorter than the show as a whole.

    On the other hand, Deep Space Nine was closer to a single story with a beginning, middle, and end. There were still plenty of episodes that would still make sense if you moved them to a different season, but it was much less episodic than the previous shows.

    Voyager was billed as a serial work, but was so badly written that most episodes could be moved around at will with no harm to the storyline.

    Babylon 5, in contrast, gave every episode some link to the overarching plot, even if it was just hints. (Especially in the first season, when the main antagonists were still hidden and all we had were hints.)

    It’s easy for episodic shows to be written at the same pace that they are filmed. With serial shows, you have to know in advance where the story is going to go even if you still write most of the dialog at the pace of filming. I didn’t watch much of Lost, but I got the impression that while it was a serial, the writers had no real plan from the start and that everything was made up as they went along. The result is that the story is incoherent. I’ve never watched any soap operas either, but I gather that they try to arrange for frequent cliffhangers and dramatic changes (making the story more serial), but that there is never a planned end to the story; they’re perpetually in the middle. The result is a work with constant churn and no resolution.

  103. NeutralschwartzworldJan 21, 2021

    Ah yes, can you change the past or was there a time traveler version of you running around failing to change things the whole time? See season 5 of Lost for endless discussion on this point. You also can avoid paradoxes if it turns out that time travel just puts you on an alternate timeline.

    There's a different paradox with this version of time travel though. Suppose I'm a kid and future-Me comes back and tells me a story. "you will write down this story and publish it and it will be famous." I do as he asks and he's absolutely right, leading me to eventually return the favor to my past self in a time loop.

    Where did the story come from?

  104. NeutraljohngDec 30, 2020

    Wasn’t it played in a few episodes of Lost?

  105. Negative0-_-0Dec 25, 2020

    Well the final books didn't come out yet so we can't say the movie was worse. I suspect the books will be just as bad because the series suffers from the same effect many stories like this suffer from: The writer establishes many interesting threads without knowing where they lead, and then can't tie them up and the series falls flat in the end. Happened with Lost, with Heroes and many other series as well.

  106. NegativeCamperBob2Dec 17, 2020

    Lost's final episodes were more like, "Box? What box? I don't see any box here. Who said anything about a box? What are you talking about?"

  107. MixedbuzzerbetrayedDec 17, 2020

    His "mystery boxes" shtick has gotten so old. It sort of made things interesting in Lost, but it seems like he keeps doing it, over and over again, in each of his films.

  108. NeutralschwartzworldDec 16, 2020

    Truthfully, probably it would just be easier to watch the DVD for watching on the TV, but Plex lets you watch on all devices.

    I really don't need instant access to tons of movies, but my kids watch a lot of the same ones over and over, so I keep those on Plex, rather than paying for Disney plus or whatever.

    After ripping I usually increase the crf a little to reduce the file size to host on plex. Movies that we are watching a lot live on Plex, but if we stop watching something, or it seems like a one-time thing, then they can be removed from the library.

    The burned DVDs are really more of a personal archive. Those movies could get added back to Plex someday. I don't need all of Lost or Breaking Bad on my Plex server, because I've recently watched them, so they'll live in the DVD drawer for a few years.

  109. NegativelaumarsDec 3, 2020

    I never understood why people stuck with Lost. I stopped watching about 3 episodes into season 3 when it became obvious that the writers where just making shit up with no attempt at an explanation. Season 2 was really good, added a lot of mystery and it started to feel like something was happening, then season 3 went off a whole other tangent. At that point I turned to my wife and said “they’re dead, this is all just made up from one season to another. You can watch it without me in the future.” And guess what, 7 series later it’s revealed that they were all dead. No shit.

    I might not have been the target audience though. People often go nuts for JJ Abrams and I’ve honestly hated almost everything of his I’ve watched. So I’m likely just not the kind of person he is targeting.

  110. Negativedanbmil99Oct 27, 2020

    Good thing someone is teaching Hollywood's next batch of writers how to churn out boring sequels with de-risked financial prospects for the investors.

    What I want to hear about is, how will the medium of uncertain-life multi-year serials get beyond the 4th/5th season disapointments of GOT, Lost, BG(reboot)?

    I spend an inordinate amount of time investing in these endless storylines, only to have them 1) get canceled after Season 3 or 2) start sucking in season 4 or 5 (Might get lucky with a Dexter and not suck until year 6 or 7, but still...)

    This is an important cultural issue, what with the pandemic and whatnot

  111. PositiveLargoLasskhyfvOct 15, 2020

    Hm. Late to the party, nevertheless I can't resist to give my two cents to the phenomenon which is btw. not even new, or limited to Netflix.

    First I didn't grow up with much TV, because there were many more interesting things to do as a child, like playing in the forest. Later on I haven't been a fan either, and finally discarded my TV in 1996 and went into cinema instead. But again, not that much.

    For a time I substituted that with a Hauppauge WinTV in one of my PCI-slots, and had the surreal experience to watch the second plane crash into the Twin Towers in NYC live on CNN after IRC exploded with: "TURN ON CNN NOW!1!!". Removed the card maybe a few weeks after that, because TV became toxic then, as in News are bad for you, and wasn't worth the energy anymore.

    Did a strict media diet for a few years then, until I couldn't resist because of Battlestar Galactica, and got lost into Lost :)

    From then on I partially catched up, but still very selective.

    Anyways, what follows is an incomplete list of things which either never made it further than the pilot, or got canceled mid-season, or could have been longer IMO.

    Earliest thing which comes to mind are several attempts from Gene Roddenberry with

    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genesis_II_(film) in 1973

    followed by

    [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Earth_(film) in 74

    and [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strange_New_World_(film) in 75

    Similar for [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan%27s_Run_(TV_series) around the same time.

    Then the reimagined

    [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivors_(2008_TV_series)

    where I can recommend the original https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivors_(1975_TV_series) if you are into realistic Non-Zombie Post-Apocalypse stuff and can get it in good quality.

    [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Train_(TV_series) from 1999 What are they going to do after? How? Where? WTF?

    [7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jericho_(2006_TV_series) This was one of the most annoying cancelings mid-season!

    [8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outcasts_(TV_series) from 2011 could have been more.

    [9] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terra_Nova_(TV_series) also from 2011 could have been much more.

    [10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_(TV_series) 2011

    [11] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falling_Skies 2011

    [12] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defiance_(TV_series) 2013

    [13] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rewind_(2013_film) Never made it into a series. WHY?

    [14] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ascension_(miniseries) 2015

    [15] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wayward_Pines 2015

    [16] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied 2015-2017 This one is special and maybe didn't get much attention because politically incorrect with the ongoing Crimean ... how to put it, occupation, crisis? Anyways, very watchable! (I'm delighted to discover there is a third season out there now. Yay!)

    [17] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colony_(TV_series) 2016-2018 How do the aliens look? I mean WTF? What a let-down :(

    [18] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Strain_(TV_series) 2014-2017 Not really canceled, but could have been more.

    [19] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_Sun 2018 Could have been so much more...

    Maybe it's because budgets of production companies have been tighter since the

    [20] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008 ?

    Also more and more competition with more and more immersive games, sometimes rendered so photorealistic that players just dive in to explore the gameworld by sightseeing, and have fun interacting with things like in an old point-and-click adventure, just seriously upgraded and optionally in groups, networked :)

  112. MixedsonecaOct 14, 2020

    I agree. It was getting worse, but still an ok show in my opinion. The last season was just terrible.

    An awesome show becoming an ok show and then ending as a terrible show is not worth recommending for anyone.

    For me Lost, was a great show, with highs and lows, with fairly good last season, with a very disappointing and confusing last episode. Still worth the ride in my opinion.

  113. MixedekianjoOct 14, 2020

    Lost's peak was the end episode of Season 1. It was just perfect, emotional, and opening up a whole new world of mysteries with the hatch. Season 2 episode 1 was one of the worst disappointments.

  114. NeutralgregmacOct 14, 2020

    > This gives the writing team the bandwidth to properly conclude all of the main plot lines.

    I remember watching Lost (the TV series) and getting into this around Season 3, and I remember hearing them saying they were "waiting to start telling the ending of the story". I found a recent article [1] talking it in more detail:

    > "There were all of these compelling mysteries and so we were saying, ‘We wanna have this stuff answered by the end of Season 1, this stuff answered by the end of Season 2, and then the show basically ends after about three years.’ That was the initial pitch, and they were not even hearing it. [....] they [ABC] were just like, ‘Do you understand how hard it is to make a show that people want to watch? And people like the show? So why would we end it? You don’t end shows that people are watching.’”

    You can't keep dragging out the mysteries forever, you have to eventually resolve something. You also can't just keep introducing new ones forever, because it doesn't make sense. You can't keep showing the same flashbacks, and you just can't introduce major new chunks of history to people's backstories that have never been brought up before.

    [1] https://comicbook.com/tv-shows/news/lost-ending-original-plans-damon-lindelof-interview/

  115. NegativeaddictedOct 14, 2020

    This is actually the exact opposite of what the LOST writers did. After season 1 or so, the show focused a lot more on relationships and the growth of its characters.

    This ended up being the largest source of complaints about the show. Most of the original viewers watched it because they enjoyed the mysteries and cliffhangers and wanted them answered. However, the show moved completely away from that which led to so many of the complaints that the original questions were not being answered.

  116. NegativegowldOct 14, 2020

    The point of LOST was to dangle more and more plot twists to create cliffhanger suspense every episode, not tell a story.

  117. NeutraljguimontOct 14, 2020

    To be honest your examples were aired on TV some time ago where the normal season was 24 episodes (about 40-45 min long for seasons like Lost) and a half season 10 or 12.

    Most of the new shows are between 8 and 12 episodes about an hour long.

  118. NegativemattlondonOct 14, 2020

    Personal opinion from a brit:

    US series are too long.

    It is a psychological thing I guess - sitting down and perusing netflix, see something you like but then realise it is 24 hour-long episodes just in the first season. It is a turn off - I can't commit upfront to that amount of time to something entirely unknown to me.

    Especially since in a lot of series I've watched, they often lose their way and 99 times out 100 the last 2 or 3 seasons inevitably decay into a "will-they-wont-they" thing about two characters falling in love or whatever, and the rest of the cast and whatever made the series good originally is mostly ignored. Then they're cancelled. So e.g. Lost, US Office, that 70s show and many more all went on way too long while dancing around with romance between two characters etc etc while ignoring what made the first season or two appealing.

    Don't get me wrong, I love binge watching something good and I am disappointed when I run out of episodes or whatever, but it is good for people to know when to end a show and leave people with good memories, rather than turning it into a death march where people are relieved to just have finished the show.

    Give me 8 to 10 good episodes per season, and please don't string it out for 7, 8, 9 seasons when there is only enough ideas for 2 or maybe rarely 3 seasons's worth of episodes.

  119. NegativeleetcrewOct 14, 2020

    this could be true, but it doesn't really make sense to me. a bad ending could certainly sour a movie for me, but a long running TV show could have a hundred hours of quality content that goes out with a fizzle. doesn't make it not worth watching.

    I'm not sure I would recommend your examples to a friend though. GOT started going downhill around season 5; it wasn't just the ending that was bad. I'm sure people would disagree with me here, but I think lost hasn't aged very well. it was a good show only by the mediocre standards of '00s TV.

  120. MixedghaffOct 14, 2020

    I wouldn't really have trouble selling GoT. "Didn't finish as strong as you might like but it's worth watching so long as you're OK with graphic sex and violence."

    But I agree with Lost. "Really original show but it pretty much goes off the rails."

  121. MixedhinkleyOct 14, 2020

    I think you may be underselling binge-watching.

    Lost was a watershed moment in many ways, even though JJ Abrams couldn’t stick the landing. They rushed out the DVDs of season 1 about a month before the season 2 premiere, giving people time to binge the whole show (even the pirates). As long as the streaming services keep the back catalog around, you can always catch up. I have forgotten which show, but there was a network show I stopped watching because they only had the last six episodes on their app. Once I fell seven episodes behind, I didn’t want to keep going, having missed a chunk of the story arc.

    There’s a certain level of curiosity for a show that has survived, say, six seasons. They must have something there if they keep going. Maybe I should check it out? Especially if I’m out of other stuff. But is it going to have a satisfying final episode, peter out, or end ina cliff hanger? The more seasons, the higher the likelihood for a wrap up. Two season shows almost always end abruptly.

  122. NegativemanishsharanOct 2, 2020

    I have patiently watched Lost Seasons 1 through 5 before giving up. I still have no idea about the Dharma initiative. I guess that's what it would be like for a shareholder in Palantir.

  123. NeutralHenryBemisJul 31, 2020

    What I am writing may not a good idea, but it works. Let's assume you like 12 patreon content creators. You can subscribe one month per year to each (1st-Jan, 2nd-Feb, and so on), binge consume the contenct they made for the past 12 months, and unsubscribe to them. This way you kick your FOMO habit, get to see what you enjoy.

    I do this with TV series (in a way). I stopped watching Lost, HIMYM, and a few more, and then I binge watched in the end (in the very end). I watched the last 3 seasons of HIMYM and last 2 season of Lost like this. It was more an exercise to kick the FOMO habit, and avoid the 'agony' of waiting for the next episode to drop .

    Most content creators give you access to all their past stuff.

    Again, I know this may not be ethically "good", but it's part of the game of using patreon and other content sharing management services the way it better suits ME/YOU, than them.

    In the scenario of enjoying 12 creators, you spread them out in the year, you spend $5 per month instead of 12*5= 60 per month. In the span of a decade, that adds up to a lot. And don't get me wrong, it's not about being cheap. If you feel bad, go and donate that saved $ in a charity. It's about controlling your time and your FOMO habit.

  124. NegativeaazaaMay 14, 2020

    This has ruined many movies for me.

    But here's a thread that talks about movies/TV shows in which the gun was never fired:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/64x53j/whats_the_most_disappointing_unfired_chekhovs_gun/

    Funny quote:

    > Lost was a Chekhov's Gatling gun

  125. NeutralfoobMar 7, 2020

    I think this is a great explanation. The US has a much more recent history of frontiermanship and homesteading than Europe does, and that continues to permeate our culture in many ways. When I was a kid, books like My Side of the Mountain and Island of the Blue Dolphins were required reading. Apocalyptic television shows like Jericho, Lost, The 100, The Last Man, and Revolution are still very popular. The echoes of the 1800s live on in books, television shows, and movies.

  126. NeutraldilyevskyJan 19, 2020

    Mount Analogue by Rene Daumal is pretty cool and supposedly was an inspiration for The Holy Mountain and Lost tv series

  127. NeutralIzkataDec 27, 2019

    > but boy did it start with a bang.

    Lost got some crazy publicity (for the time) as well: Lots of people thought the shot of the plane from the inside being torn in two was real, not from a TV show.

  128. PositivehinkleyDec 27, 2019

    It was that way before the writer's strike.

    The slow decline that started with The Real World had picked up pace, and the airwaves were slowly filling with reality show after reality show.

    Then Lost went on the air, and nobody noticed at first, but by Season 2 it had competition from story-driven shows again. And I dunno who rushed out Lost Season 1 on DVD a few months before the second season aired, but that was an inspired decision. Tons of new viewers for Season 2, and probably for the first time ever people were binge-watching a TV show.

    It ended with a whimper, but boy did it start with a bang.

  129. Negativedeckar01Nov 19, 2019

    > I can't recommend watching HBO's Watchmen enough.

    Fair warning though: Damon Lindelof is responsible for Lost and The Leftovers, which had notoriously unsatisfying conclusions. Some of the plot arcs are starting to terminate with actual plot movement, so there is hope that the season might achieve some form of closure. If this show finishes after one season and succeeds in telling a coherent story, I will be surprised.

  130. NeutralTheBranca18Aug 13, 2019

    I'm not really following your analogy. A video game isn't a car, a car is a means of transportation that depending on your situation, is a requirement in order to get goods and retain employment. A video game is a hobby for most people, it's like watching movies or television. I'd say it'd be more similar to how people reacted to Lost's final seasons rather than a broken car.

    One can separate the launch of the game, where clearly there was a lot of confusion and misleading information, from the events since. They have issued free updates for years. They received death threats and other harassment as well. I'm not saying you have to like the game, but I'm just confused as to what they're getting with.

  131. Negativedylan604Jul 10, 2019

    The creators of Lost claimed they new exactly how that series was going to go, but watching it definitely felt like they were stringing things along to get to the 100 episode syndication threshold more than telling a fulfilling story.

    I've been enjoying the limited-series shows, or shows that do not attempt to correlate multiple seasons together like Fargo. The first season of True Detective was done in the right number of episodes to get the story told without stringing it along. The studios forced a rushed second season that I pretend doesn't exist. HBO's Sharp Objects is another example of using just enough episodes to tell the story.

  132. NeutralPhantomGremlinJun 17, 2019

    I just really think the guy is an idiot.

    I don't watch CNN and don't know Lemon. But here's a possible alternative explanation (hardly a defense):

    Wikipedia says he graduated with a degree in broadcast journalism. He probably didn't pay much attention to science in high school, and almost certainly wasn't required to take any science classes in college.

    So, he might not even understand science as simple as F=ma. In his defense I'd bet that if you surveyed the adult population, the majority couldn't tell you what F=ma means.

    The above is a long way of saying that most journalists aren't literate in science. And, we know that black holes are "sexy". Many books have been written about them. Many movies made that feature them as key plot points.

    So, why not ask about black holes as a possibility? It's as plausible an explanation as whatever it was that happened to that airplane in the Lost TV series of about 10 years ago.

    Having said all that, yeah, the guy is probably an idiot. As are quite a few TV journalists.

  133. NegativelisperJun 5, 2019

    The problem with serialized TV is that sooner or later you realize that it's all about making you think that there's something cool that's going to happen in the next episode. Nothing cool ever actually happens, but you don't realize this except in retrospect, and, occasionally, when there has been so much hype that the lack of a payoff is impossible to ignore (c.f. Lost, The Sopranos, Game of Thrones...)

    The only exception I can think of is Breaking Bad.

  134. MixedethbroMar 8, 2019

    Gibson's books clicked for me where I read an interview in which he claimed Idoru was his favorite. (Though this was before his newer stuff)

    I finally realized his enjoyment is in Type B writing. It's the detail next to the main plot, rather than the motion itself.

    Which parallels what I like about film noir -- it's not about finding the murderer: it's about watching the characters find the murderer.

    Which is why I maintain the Lost ending was hilarious. JJ Abrams essentially said "Look, you didn't really care about the answers: you cared about watching these characters look for answers. And in the end, it's the characters who mattered." Which is probably not something you should ever point out to a TV geek if you want to keep your head intact. ;)

  135. NegativeSharlinMar 2, 2019

    Lost and the new BSG are the two prime examples of How Not To Do a long story arc. Both started with the promise of a coherent overarching story, but in reality the writers only had the vaguest idea of where they were going beyond the basic premise. They are the exact opposite of B5. Frak, the very Arc Words of BSG were "…and [the Cylons] have a plan". Well, turns out the writers didn't! They totally made it up as they went along. So perhaps bad execution of long story arcs has ruined TV. But the concept itself certainly hasn't.

    Anyway, even B5 had a plenty of "monster of the week" filler episodes as well. They were generally of much lower quality than the plot episodes.

  136. MixedNegitivefragsMar 2, 2019

    I have the, perhaps somewhat unpopular, opinion that this the concept has ruined most TV.

    It wasn't Babylon 5 that sparked the trend, but in 2004 Lost, Battlestar Galactica and then later on a few following shows like Prison Break came along and were very successful with the long story arc.

    The concept of the seasons-long story arc is now basically endemic in modern TV. I think it's a situation where the highs are higher, but the average is much worse across all TV.

    The issue I think is that the writers can't experiment like they could in the past with the more monster-of-the-week type formula.

    A bad idea in a modern show is baggage you have to deal with for the rest of the show. In old school TV, the end of the episode came around and erased all sins. It also forces the writers tell a complete story each episode.

    Consider Star Trek: TNG. There are a whole pile of really terrible episodes of that show, but there are also amazing ones. I don't think it's possible for a show like Star Trek: Discovery to ever reach the heights of TNG given the baggage it has signed itself up to deal with.

  137. NeutralDiederichMar 1, 2019

    I just did some very fast research about that, and apparently both Lost and Battlestar Galactica attributed their coherent story arcs to Babylon 5.

    I never watched Lost though.

    If I may ask, assuming you watched the show: did they ever film scenes from years in the future, seamlessly connecting them in the present and then later on?

    Thanks for your reference.

  138. NegativelogfromblammoFeb 26, 2019

    I call them "wikiwalks".

    And I call an excessively tangential session a "wikiwalkabout", after the Australian walkabout tradition introduced to Americans by "Crocodile Dundee", or, more recently--the Locke character from "Lost". And boy, did that show have a letdown denoument. But I did like the colossus foot in the later episodes, because it reminded me of "Ozymandias", by P.B. Shelley. And did you know that he wrote that as his shot in a poetry duel with another poet--Horace Smith? (I guess he won, right?) Anyway, they picked that as a topic to honor a new museum exhibit of the Younger Memnon statue of Rameses II. Those British museum-goers were just mad for importing cultural artifacts from distant lands and never sending them back. Like the Elgin Marbles, from Greece. And when I think about Britain and Greece, I can't help thinking about their palace guards--Greece with their poofy-footed Evzones and Britain with their Beefeaters. And one of those Beefeaters is the Ravenmaster of the Tower of London--literally in charge of the welfare of the tower ravens. One of whom is apparently named Merlina, and is allowed additional latitude in how far she may fly, because she always comes back. And speaking of ravens and 19th-century poets, boy was Edgar Allen Poe a gothy li'l guy. He had a lot of inspirational company, though. Including Mary Shelley, wife of the aforementioned P.B., who won a 3-way ghost story duel between herself, her husband, and Lord Byron, who only managed to invent the vampire romance genre. So between the two of them and ol' Rameses II, we're almost all primed to scare the crap out of Laurel and Hardy with Universal Pictures monster movie staples: Frankenstein's monster, Dracula, and the Mummy. But we still need the Wolfman....

    And hopefully you see how it works now. Before wikis existed, there was "Connections", by James Burke.

  139. NeutralrayinerDec 17, 2018

    People want the big, expensive movies with big-name actors. How do we know that? Because that's what they pay for. That's the competitive market at work. With modern technology, digital cameras, digital editing, and digital distribution, you can make movies for a fraction of the price of Hollywood blockbusters. There's no barriers to entry stopping you from distributing your low-budget movies to hundreds of millions of people via Youtube, etc. But nobody wants to watch that indie crap. They want $250 million MCU blockbusters. Indeed, you're seeing the push towards higher production values in TV too. Low-budget weekly shows are being replaced by high-budget "prestige TV." Back in the day, "Lost" was expensive (for a new show with an unknown cast) at $3-4 million per episode. Today, Netflix and Amazon are blowing $50-150 million to pre-shoot an entire season of shows like House of Cards, the Crown, Altered Carbon, etc.

    And at the end of the day, it's all just entertainment. The market is structured to give people what they want, what's wrong with that?

  140. NegativetonyedgecombeOct 23, 2018

    The obvious TV series that went on far too long was Lost but even stuff like Game of Thrones or Breaking Bad is/was stretched out too far.

  141. Positiveatr_gzSep 29, 2018

    Flannery O'Connor is great. I'm curious if anyone else heard about her through the TV show Lost. Some of my favorite parts of that show were the references.

    http://lostpedia.wikia.com/wiki/Everything_That_Rises_Must_Converge

  142. NeutraljoshvmMar 13, 2018

    > A daily podcast that lasts an hour? It's remarkable that he can keep up that pace. Could he make just as much money from having fewer podcasts? would the scarcity make the podcast more valuable to advertisers?

    As a listener, you're in a good position to judge - do you think that the content suffers from being so frequently produced? So they're making $2k per episode on ads - would they make $15k if they made one podcast a week? On that time scale, is there a better monetisation model?

    Scarcity really valuable to me as a listener - I don't have time to listen to an hour a day of a single show. I have an audible subscription (ca 10-30 hours per book, unabridged), shelves of real books, Netflix, Spotify, a list of TV shows and movies, a girlfriend, all vying for ear-time. Some people solve this by speeding up podcasts, but I like listening to real voices. Remvoving silences can work well though.

    Consider podcasts like http://moviesbyminutes.com/ - they look fun, but who has time to listen to potentially 100 hours of content about one film? That's more than all of LOST. Would you rather watch every movie on the IMDB Top 250 or listen to people going through every Star Wars movie minute by minute? I once listened to the complete Wheel of Time - it's over 2 weeks unabridged. Took about 4 months listening to nothing else - commuting, exercise, walking to the shops, flights, trains etc.

    SED at least offers listeners the chance to skip episodes they don't care about, but podcasts really have to be impressive for me to listen to them.

  143. NegativebaldfatJan 8, 2018

    Well Dr. Who and Hitchhicker's Guide to the Galaxy are absurd but fun. Lost and Heroes both past season 2 are painful.

  144. NeutralbrownbatJan 5, 2018

    Lost was the first big show I can remember that just had a one to two beat opening theme.

    It's weird that it took so long. Early films, the Jazz Singer if you go way back, had a fifteen minute overture, reminiscent of the orchestral opening to stage plays while people found their seats.

    Movies eventually realized that, artistic merit notwithstanding, that was boring. They first shortened those intros to a card of the main players. Sometime later the guilds required credits include all craftsman, but just stars. A fair and egalitarian move with the unintended consequences of reexpanding credits, making them... Less fun. Studios just moved the credits to the end and began with some establishing scene instead, as a compromise between the contributors and audience.

    I guess anyone who mostly watched things after Lost wouldn't expect long tv intros. But then, most streaming services let you skip them, so it shouldn't be a big deal

  145. NeutralJonathonWDec 23, 2017

    No intro to skip in Lost (it's just 5-10 seconds of the show title against a black screen).

    That's been the trend for dramas basically ever since-- Lost was among the first to adopt the minimal intro that's popular now. Stargate even made a joke out of it in one of their later episodes.

  146. NeutralSyneRyderOct 8, 2017

    Australia has Black & Gold brand, not specific to a certain store but always low priced and bland packaging that is identical for every product (yellow box, black text).

    http://www.lossofprivacy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/aboutusbrands.jpg

    Still not as utilitarian as the Dharma Initiative food packaging in the TV show Lost, though:

    https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/1313454/lost-food.0.jpg

  147. NegativeghostbrainalphaSep 29, 2017

    I think soap opera might still be correct.

    As you watch a Soap Opera it becomes apparent that all the drama has no real consequence, and thus becomes meaningless. That is why General Hospital can be on for 40 years or something at this point. You can watch for a year, skip a year, then come back. You missed a ton of events, but it doesn't effect what you take from the show.

    Once "the ending" becomes detached from the show, it is very difficult to manufacture meaningful drama.

    Some shows, like Seinfeld or Simpsons always return to a set point at the end of an episode. So they don't need a real ending. This is different than the soap opera. Because there is no illusion of an ending. You know the show isn't going anywhere and you experience just what it is in that moment.

    The soap opera is diabolical. As each episode ends, you are hooked, waiting for the next so you can find out "what happens", but there is no ultimate payoff. Just a never ending sequence of false promises.

    Soap operas are the worst offenders, who best illustrate the point. But any drama series without a fixed end point is guilty of the same crime. Take LOST, which began as a brilliant show, but as it was stretched out began to anger many people. When would it have become a full Soap Opera? 10 more seasons? My point is that it already was, just shorter than some others.

  148. Negativeopen-source-uxAug 28, 2017

    I disliked Lost and always felt it had a fake (and dishonest) complexity. So many details were introduced, but later forgotten and never resolved.

    From the very first episodes, the way they started slowly cycling through each character's backstory, I realised this was going to be a really long drawn-out series that was clearly going to be stretched (and milked) to maximum running length. I'll credit it for it's glossy production look and design. That's one thing that really separates productions today from old: many TV series have the same glossy, high-end look of Hollywood films.

  149. NeutralghaffAug 28, 2017

    Complex series with ongoing storylines can be great but they also get a bit exhausting after a while. There is a definite limit to how many Game of Thrones or Lost plotlines and character backstories one can keep in one's head when you just want to sit down and watch some TV.

    It's fine that there are TV shows that are basically crafted for uber-fans who want to carefully watch every episode multiple times but these shows often aren't for the casual viewer. And there's nothing wrong with being a casual viewer.

  150. NeutralwebwanderingsMay 8, 2017

    Yes, that's pretty much what I meant to say as my comment above. I have not watched TV in a decade, but I hear these calls of TV dying all the time. The thing is, TV is not going to die because it is essentially fulfilling the core needs of human urges (that is, to hear and tell stories). The TV may take another shape and form, as it has in the form of Internet videos and video-watching. Who tells and creates stories (the production houses) is also insignificant.

    However, TV has indeed evolved over the years. It has gone from fictional shows like Lost which made space for semi-fictional reality TV shows era (Lost was a precursor to Survivor), to Cinema-like experience of GoT. TV has also seen itself evolve so fast that fictional shows like House of Cards lost itself to the reality on the ground.

    These are human evolution in terms of what we're telling ourselves via our stories. It matters less how we're telling stories (Netflix, Internet, CBS...doesn't matter).

  151. NeutralBorisMelnikMar 5, 2017

    if that were the case, it would suck if we got rebooted or worse case had a fatal kernel issue. Imagine its like that old device in the TV show "lost" sitting in a tower for 20 years being played over and over again. It works fine until someone touches it, then blam!

  152. MixedekianjoFeb 3, 2017

    > general consensus about Lost isn't it?

    Is it really ? I remember when the last Episode was out, everyone was like "wow it was awesome" and all, while I seemed to be the only one who did not like it one bit.

  153. Neutral_pdp_Jan 30, 2017

    It occurred to me that the cinema as we knew it would be soon over as soon as I saw the first episode of Lost. Technology is definitely driving the price of content production but also content consumption to the bottom and there is no way escaping it, except maybe what Netflix is currently doing - original content - which they are getting better and bette at.

    It is kind of a medium between hollywood productions and youtube - fun, engaging and most importantly agile. According to Netflix reports they spent a lot of money last year but the amount of original content produced in a single year is astonishing. That being said, younger generation prefer watching youtube which is 95% free - and I can see the appeal.

    I doubt that we will stop watching movies anytime soon but I am more than certain that the format will change to make it bite-size, more engaging and instantly available for a small fee that makes it actually rather annoying to use torrents to consume pirated content.

    Netflix is right there but what I find even more interesting is what Amazon is doing because of the way they package everything up into a single service. Let's be honest, the most annoying thing with subscription services, regardless how less you are charged, is the renewal. I know this first hand because I run my own SaaS. Amazon packages everything into their prime subscription which is annual and for a small fee not only you get to receive expedited delivery on many of the items but also original content and music and that is quite a killer feature that is hard to compete with. Combine this with the fact that almost every modern TV you can buy since 2016 is preloaded with Netflix and Amazon Video - you start to get the bigger pictures.

    I am sure others such as Google and Apple will follow but they might be too late in the game.

  154. Negativeuser837387Dec 24, 2016

    >>Lost was all a communal dream while everyone on the flight died together.

    Noooooooo!!!. You've just spoiled it for me. No I'll never work up the courage to watch the series. I've tried watching the first episode several times but I just find it so boring. It looked like a good TV series and really wanted to like it but I just could not get through the first one. I found some of the characters obnoxious. Now you've ruined it for me. Hope you are happy. :)

  155. NeutralfsiefkenNov 25, 2016

    360-degree feature request: interpolating 360 degree video from standard 16:9 Lost episode format. This should be doable as most information is there in previous and future frames so a 3d Photosynth (Microsoft) like model can be build. The rest can be guesed or be given a default texture themed by the surrounding pixels (like Philips Ambient), similar as to how people color black and white pictures or enlarge pictures with fractal-based interpolation techniques.

  156. NegativeTheAceOfHeartsNov 8, 2016

    A bit weird, once the article loaded it automatically scrolled me to the end for some reason.

    The article strikes me as a bit unfocused. Although I only skimmed it.

    I've personally grown a bit tired of most TV shows and movies. I still consume my fair share of media, but I've slowly been shifting my focus more towards book series (or more specifically, audiobooks). I'm not interested in watching TV shows that don't have an overarching plot or direction, with the major example of this being Lost. So far my experience has been that you tend to get a more cohesive story.

    If you've grown weary of watching TV, I'd suggest trying out audiobooks. You can even listen to em while you're out walking about, driving, or eating alone. I've had an Audible subscription for a few years now, and I seriously love it. Maybe I still have really shallow tastes, but so far I've found that if you pick up any book with a few thousand ratings and 4 to 5 stars, it'll probably be really good.

    With that said, I'm a huge sucker for movie adaptations and I'd probably watch the adaptation for most of the books I've read. Even though they'll often butcher huge parts of the story (totally understandable, different mediums), it's really enjoyable to contrast your own imagination with that of the creative staff in the production. The most recent example of this for me was The Martian. My mental image of the main character was consistent while I read the book, but when I watched the movie I realized I hadn't accounted for the fact that he was starving.

  157. PositiveTallGuyShortOct 12, 2016

    I agree - Netflix is becoming synonymous with binge watching. I've gotten months and months of value out of Netflix with Breaking Bad, Lost, The Office, The X-Files, House, etc... If I had to do the research required to get similar satisfaction out of the same number of hours of movie viewing? Forget it.

  158. NegativeCurtMonashOct 2, 2016

    I actually think Babylon 5, Seasons 2-4, was outstanding. I'm not sure of what you mean by being very negative about some of the acting -- I see the range as being from competent to brilliant, with almost nothing that was outright bad, a few specific lines perhaps excepted.

    There was quite a bit of good stuff in the fifth season as well, actually, mainly the Centauri and telepath arcs.

    I also can't think of any effects that are distracting on a rewatch.

    I stopped watching Lost early on, perhaps in Season 2. I stopped watching Heroes a few episodes into Season 2; when Kristen Bell of all people seemed to be giving a bad performance, I concluded that the show was probably doomed.

  159. NeutralCurtMonashOct 1, 2016

    The Buffy vs. Angel vs. Firefly discussion is a good one. Babylon 5, Veronica Mars, and the recent Battlestar Galactica also fit in. Ditto Dollhouse, Heroes, Alias and Lost.

    I'd say:

    -- It's just a detail, but recall that the first season of Buffy was actually just a half-season in length.

    -- The first three seasons of Buffy had a very clear meta-metaphor. :) It posited monsters as being a good representation for what happens in actual high school life.

    -- That aspect of the show hit its stride in the Buffy/Angel romance: Girl sleeps with guy and he turns into a monster.

    -- Firefly was good, but nothing in it was as brilliant as, say, the best of Buffy.

    -- A lot of shows started with a lot of monster-of-the-week/crisis-of-the-week and emphasized the ongoing story more later into the run. But most of the shows cited did at least some standalone stories all the way to the end. (Babylon 5 is one exception).

    -- Firefly never got past that part of the show's evolution. This may be one reason it never matched Buffy's brilliance.

    -- Not knowing whether or not a show will be renewed is a huge problem. If you're a fan of Buffy or Angel or Babylon 5, you're familiar with the consequences.

    -- The writers' strike messed up multiple shows, or at least their audiences. I never went back to watching Battlestar Galactica post-strike.

    -- Joss Whedon tried to oversee three shows at once. That didn't go well. Each of Buffy, Angel and Firefly deserved more of his attention.

    -- Dollhouse didn't have real characters, the people running the place excepted. It was never going to work.

    -- Some shows have a brilliant idea for an overarching story, in which the big story and the individual characters' experiences and arcs mesh beautifully. Then that story comes to a natural end, and the show is never quite as good again. Veronica Mars Season 1 is a great example. Ditto the first 1 1/2 or 2 seasons of Alias. Ditto Babylon 5 after things were wrapped up in Season 4.

    -- I'd put Battlestar Galactica into the same group. The best part was the first season, as everybody builds a society on the fly )as it were) that can survive against terrible odds. The plots with the election and the defeat and the aftermath weren't as good. And the pseudo-mystical stuff toward the end was just weird.

  160. NegativedrzaiusapelordSep 21, 2016

    Its a decent and sometimes good show but certainly not one of the greats, and has more than a few major flaws. I'll try to minimize spoilers.

    1. The plotline is pretty much Fight Club with computers and telegraphs this early on. This is clearly not on purpose as we see hints dropped all the time and the reveal is given with such a flourish. Lets stop defending Esmail here. The reveal is really hamfisted and the show borrows VERY generously from Fight Club, for better or worse.

    2. The twists are largely unpredictable. Sure you can argue that some clues were dropped beforehand, but they're so ambiguous as to be meaningless. Anything can happen on that show and to me, that's lazy writing. The universe that show lives in should have a rational set of rules that govern it. Its basic world-building. If the finale involves aliens or time travel, it woudn't surprise anyone, in fact /r/mrrobot is full of people expecting this. Anything should not be possible, especially when you're 30+ hours in.

    3. The pacing isn't very good and gets especially bad in season 2. I don't think we needed several episodes dedicated to Elliot being in [spoilers] or other events that look stretched out to fill episodes. This is a common issue in TV, and I'll let it slide, but the first few episodes of S2 are like pulling teeth and turns off viewers. I know people that quit watching during this period. Its a hard sell to say "Look there's about 10 hours of nothing, but it kinda picks up after an experimental episode where the characters are bizarrely on a 90s sitcom for artsy fartsy cred."

    4. The content is lacking. My understanding is that Esmail and his team originally wrote a movie and pretty much retrofitted that into one season of television. Once the [big event] happens in season one, the show lost its footing. I would have loved to spend more time at Allsafe instead of jumping straight into [big event].

    5. The politics and hacktivism are pretty naive, if not just stupid. Its a lot of alt-left/far-left politics and having the characters act dumbfounded and guilty when regular people lost their homes and jobs seems ridiculous. What exactly did they think would happen after [big event]? We never really get to see anyone's moviation for this, other than some throwaway comments about "evil bankers" and "evil ceos." We know Elliot has a secret motivation and master plan (of course we have no details of it), but what about Trent and Mobley and Darlene? Why are they doing this? None of them remotely seem to have the zeal of a revolutionary and very soon regret all their actions. Its like some middle class hipster kids decided to overthrow society on a whim.

    6. The show has a lot geek fan service where it can alienate non-geeks. I think its possible to show hacking without getting into the weeds of it and have it be semi-authentic. I can go either way here, but it would be nice if the show was more accessible to people like my wife and her friends.

    7. The exploration of mental illness seems hackneyed and, well, boring. Season 2's long strange cinematography focusing on Elliot's tortured face just doesn't make for good TV. I think this stuff works best in small doses and has been done better by almost everyone else, including season 1 of this very show! Thankfully, Esmail has moved away from this kind of thing about mid-way through S2.

    8. Whiterose as an unstoppable mastermind is a cliche and she's tiresome to watch on the show. Writers please stop using the mastermind cliche and start making your characters have flaws and screw-ups. For a show that's suppose to be complex, most of the characters aren't terribly deep or anti-cliche. Its almost distasteful to play up "the Chinese are inscrutable" cliche and have almost all the Chinese characters be unstoppable, unpredictable, and near perfect robots, constantly toying with the dumb and emotional westerners. We see the Dark Army, Chinese state hackers, the CCP, etc win pretty much every engagement but the FBI is clueless and there's no NSA or CIA at work at all here.

    9. Less so than Whiterose, but Price is written to be stereotypically evil. He's only missing a mustache to twirl. I wish he was a more complex character, not just a sociopathic CEO who cares about nothing but himself. This doesn't necessarily upset me considering the general low complexity of secondary characters on this show, but the actor playing Price is so good, it seems like a waste of talent for him to play a two dimensional character. Price has a lot of potential that has so far been ignored and perhaps anything humanizing him would upset the far-left politics of the show, which I find disappointing.

    10. The show has slowly degenerated into Lost, where meaningless clues lead to a surprise. Fans argue on /r/mrrobot but no one is ever right because its all so damn ambigious. Or someone is right, but only by dumb luck or perhaps marketing plants. I wish the show had less of a mysterious air about it. I also don't like the marketing led approach of "Check out the finale to get the real answers you've been waiting for all season!"

    I feel this show is a bit like Halt and Catch Fire. Its decent, but not very good and is constantly trying to find its footing. Like Halt, I suspect it will never really find its proper footing and will be passable geek popcorn fare with moments of brilliance. It doesn't seem to be reaching out past modest ratings. I've heard comparisons to Breaking Bad, but BB had a general appeal that Mr Robot doesn't.

    That said, this is destined to live in geek fandom, which frankly has a low barrier to entry. I just wish it was a better and more accessible show. I do look forward to the shows that will be made after being inspired by this. Mr Robot 2.0 will be good. 1.0 is just too uneven and unfocused. Compare how tight Walter White's world was or the world of The Wire compared to the manic world of Mr Robot or how complex and flawed the secondary characters were on that show compared to Mr Robots'. Those are mature and very good shows. Mr Robot? Not so much.

  161. NegativesolidangleJan 6, 2016

    It's not even that good here. Most series that ended within the last 10 years are not available. They don't have 9 out of 10 TV series that I want to watch. To make things even worse, they've raised prices from €8 to €10 even though it feels like they're removing more TV series (such as Lost) than they're adding back.

  162. NeutralreinhardtApr 17, 2015

    So like 1ms down from 100ms? Either way a rounding error in the episode-of-LOST-average-duration timescale ;)

  163. NeutralmillstoneApr 6, 2015

    I dread the day where the only content available is what artists can produce independently. Movies like Interstellar, or the TV show Lost, are by their nature very expensive, and it would be a great loss if this type of content could no longer recoup its expenses. I hope there's a place in the future for both indie work and expensive "blockbuster" content.

  164. NeutralofficialjunkApr 2, 2015

    The premise seems to be based on the button in the tv show Lost, where that code "had to be" entered in before the timer, but no one was sure what would happen if they didn't.

  165. NeutralsimlevesqueFeb 24, 2015

    I lost it at "just like the movie LOST".

  166. NeutralagumonkeyJan 17, 2015

    In my experience, this is fairly recent. I'd give Lost as a starting point. Maybe not Lost per se but the period. Movies were a little boring, people started to go big on TV Shows and a lot of ambitious ones suddenly popped. Now you have BB, HoC, GoT. Before that it was the same recipes sitcom/soap/police/scifi used from the 70s to the early 2Ks.

  167. NeutralethbroDec 3, 2014

    > (Of course, none of these streams show the same ads the original broadcast does—but if you're a clever ad agency, you're already doing product-placement instead of interstitials most of the time anyway.)

    I think you just backdoored into the most interesting ad campaign ever: 1) Find a show with a directory / writer / production team known for producing content that "stands the test of time" (e.g. likely to have a high total_views_over_time:broadcast_views ratio) 2) Include product placement for a non-existent product by a currently-existing company with strong brand recognition 3) Test response to non-existent product by initial viewers 4) Start viral campaign around non-existent product (this likely favors "Hunh?" shows a la Lost or Fringe) 5) Trigger view bump in show (win award, produce new episodes in partnership with Netflix, produce new movie, etc.) 6) Launch real-product multiple years after initial product placement

  168. NeutralofficemonkeyOct 4, 2014

    Two thoughts:

    1. Certain standalone authors had that strength. Stephen King certainly did in the 80s-90s.

    2. I think this is why certain fiction series tend to have very strong followings. Regardless of the HBO Series, people were hungry for "Dance with Dragons" when it came out.

    The internet certainly helps with TV series. Much of the popularity of "LOST" was the skillful manipulation of that popularity by the production. Compare "LOST" with "Heroes" (poor quality rapidly squandered popularity) and "Firefly" (utter failure to leverage the growing fandom.)

  169. MixedwallflowerJun 7, 2014

    I have not had a TV/Cable for about 8 years. I've also managed to avoid having a Netflix subscription and/or having home Internet fast enough to stream Netflix/Hulu.

    Giving up at the time, a most addictive show - Lost (Season Two) was incredibly hard. I had to go cold turkey. But after the Season Two ended - I realized that it would never end - there would be a Season Three, Four, other shows etc. Watching TV is one of the most socially acceptable forms of numbing oneself (or entertaining oneself) depending on what your perspective is (paraphrasing Karl Marx - 'TV is the opiate of the masses').

    Leaving TV is just a choice. So much easier if you don't physically have a TV.Doing so does not magically free you up to pursue a life of passion and interests - it simply gives you more discretionary time (if you are single). Not having a TV doesn't mean you don't watch TV when at family/friends (for instance, I remember watching 5 episodes back to back of the incredibly captivating Wallander from BBC at my sisters - they binge watch because of kids). Not having a TV is not a magic solution to the 'I'm too busy to X' - it is just a choice that you choose to spend your free time in other manners. Yes, I've missed out on 'Orange is the new black', 'Sopranos', the one with the Meth lord, etc. Yes, you miss out on the water cooler conversations - but is that really a common bond? I know its gone back to Dallas and the 80s and maybe even June Cleaver - talking about TV is just a way to assert that you are in the same loose tribe.

    So many people just consume all day, I think - when I meet people socially - I always dig down to find out what they create - like write poems or stories about the people they see on the street - because that is what makes life more interesting.

  170. NeutralwaterlesscloudMay 8, 2014

    Their hope for the future is that the sellers are also middlemen. The studios/networks distribute and in some cases finance the content, which is largely produced by production companies (which often represent independent contractors, aka Talent).

    The game Hollywood talent is starting to play is to flirt with companies like Netflix as sources of financing and distribution in order to play them off the studios. Talent benefits from more players on that side of things, which is why Netflix is able to get someone like Kevin Spacey (whose production company is quite forward-looking).

    Netflix has a lot of cash to throw around, even by Hollywood standards. So far they're using it pretty intelligently, in a long, broad game.

    They had an aborted earlier attempt with the DVD business to do something similar, Red Envelope. That was going to be their own distribution company. They were in here LA for a couple years, but from what I saw of them, the people running it were the wrong people. I think they've found the right people for their content business now. Seems to be working well, anyway.

    They're also playing their strengths well, doing series instead of motion pictures for the most part. Series are binge-able, and that's something they have the networks and studios don't.

    It's my perception that Netflix sort of triggered the start of binge watching as a phenomenon when they bought Lost for $40 million. There was a cohort who binged through that and talked about it, and then that got the idea out there. Then Breaking Bad was an interesting example when binging on Netflix and Amazon sort of retroactively moved the show from cult to huge.

    They have lost exclusive distribution partners in the past, most notably Criterion (who went to Hulu) and Starz! Those hurt them, but they seem to be coming back from it.

  171. NeutraljonahxApr 2, 2014

    This is impressive and gorgeous, but it's so confusing. Seems like a terrible idea for business websites, but would have been perfect for something like the website for the TV show "Lost"

  172. PositivesitkackMar 26, 2014

    The tv show Lost was really good at using the commercial breaks for tension building.

  173. NeutralsjclemmyMar 14, 2014

    I love this kind of modernist, socialist utopian ideal. It's gratifying to think that whilst the idealogical battles of the 20th century were still playing out, the idea of marshalling effort and resources toward the common good without capitalism was viewed positively.

    And the chairs, I love the chairs.

    It reminds me very much of the Dharma Initiative from the TV series Lost.

  174. Neutralh43zMar 10, 2014

    I don't know how to hack his chances of survival but i would start to make the time he has left really nice and good. If he has programming skills why not start a project/hackathon maybe some ctf's or a game so you can just hang out and brainstorm on an idea. How about a little lan party with his best friends. Or start some tv show e.g Lost. Good luck.

  175. PositivesroerickJan 21, 2014

    I have been having this trouble with all Tv shows lately. It's supposed to be the Golden Age of TV, and I have loved shows like Breaking Bad and Lost, but I can't shake the fact that the people producing the shows have no interest in anything other than ad views.

    TV is just ads for ads. There's a reason Hulu sucks so much.

    Kudos for voting with your eyes.

  176. NegativefractallyteNov 6, 2013

    The CxOs of these companies make it a priority to build team spirit for precisely this reason: the sense of camaraderie will compel employees to work hard. All for the team, you know.

    The military does this with its soldiers too. It's a system finely honed through centuries, and enables campaigns that truly rational players would abandon in an instant.

    And, in another twisted example, viewers of the TV show 'Lost' were manipulated into caring for the characters, so that by the ridiculous end foisted on them, the entire thing had become 'about the characters'.

    The life-lesson from this: be cynical.

  177. NegativeTheLegaceSep 30, 2013

    I don't know what other people think. But as someone who loves Sci-Fi, I loathe this man and his approach to what he calls "art". I can't stand the many series and movies he's made.

    Did not like Lost, I tried to watch a couple episodes of Fringe, I just hated it. It was bland, boring and feels so calculated. And Star Trek was a great example on how Hollywood movies are made nowadays, piece together a buncha action scenes and hope the story makes sense(I'm looking at your Iron Man 3).

    Now I say this because I am not that big of a fan of Star Trek, I really liked TNG, Voyager and Enterprise, but I barely know anything about Star Trek(haven't even watched TOS) like many people do. But this man claimed on TV that he didn't like Star Trek, how on Earth can you expect someone to even understand it well enough to make a half decent movie. Especially considering the level of quality Star Trek is suppose to have.

  178. NegativegeorgemcbaySep 12, 2013

    This is all completely anecdotal but the general consensus of the many people I know who watch it is that season 3 was mostly terrible, and allowing the Governor to survive the finale was a huge mistake (because the dragging out of that story, which has long ago worn out its welcome in the tv version of it, is a bad idea).

    Having said all of that, of the people I know who really follow the show on the creative/biz side are happy that the former show-runner was canned and replaced with Scott Gimple who wrote a lot of the best episodes.

    Personally I'm taking a wait and see approach with the next season. If things aren't solidly turned around by the middle of the next season, I'm going to quit watching. I don't want to make the same mistake I did with Lost where I was so convinced they would fix the problems that presented themselves in later seasons that I stuck with it to the bitter end.

  179. NeutralswansonAug 28, 2013

    If you find this fascinating and haven't seen the TV show LOST (does such an intersection existing?) - there is a similar mechanism introduced near the end of the first season that has a big impact on the plot. I wonder if ABC ever made an ARG of this, would have been pretty fitting I imagine.

  180. NeutraljmharveyAug 15, 2013

    Of course, 1111111 has as good a chance of winning as any other number, but since most lotteries are parimutuel (i.e. the prize is divided evenly among all winners), it makes sense to try and pick a number that no one else is going to pick.

    The Quebec lottery published their most popular numbers a few years ago [1]. They were:

    7-14-21-28-35-42 1-2-3-4-5-6 4-8-15-16-23-42 (the numbers from the tv show Lost)

    Also, from personal experience, it seems that more people play "birthday" numbers (numbers 1-31) than higher numbers.

    And, while I haven't confirmed it, I suspect that in games like Powerball, where winning tickets are determined by two independent sets of balls, people stick with their habit of choosing numbers in numerical order and not repeating numbers, so 4-12-17-24-36 (42) would be a more common pick than 4-12-17-24-36 (24).

    [1] http://lotoquebec.com/loteries/nav/en/useful-information/popular-selections/accueil

  181. NeutralkinkoraAug 15, 2013

    Not exactly fortune cookie but there was a similar occurrence.

    There was a set of numbers that appeared in one of the episodes for the TV show "Lost" and coincidentally, 4 of the numbers matched the numbers from the MegaMillions jackpot. Exactly 41,763 people matched those four numbers and each came off with $150 apiece.

    source: http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jan/06/entertainment/la-et-lotto-lost-20110106

  182. NeutralmmcnickleJul 3, 2013

    A series of Downton Abbey costs approx £12MM and reaches 13MM people in the UK alone[1].

    The 2hr pilot episode of LOST cost $12MM[2]. Each episode of Game of Thrones has a budget of $6MM[3].

    So no, they don't cost a lot of money to make, relatively speaking.

    Edit: sources.

    [1] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/8717969/Trench-war-comes-to-Downton-Abbey.html

    [2] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/1496199/The-man-who-discovered-Lost-and-found-himself-out-of-a-job.html

    [3] http://www.contactmusic.com/news/game-of-thrones-costs-6-million-per-episode_1333082

  183. NegativeicambronJun 6, 2013

    > If your "opinion" is stated in the form "x is y," then maybe you are the one who should be more conscious of the way people communicate.

    I don't think that's true. Some examples:

    "That place smells bad."

    "Red is too bright a color for a car."

    "Lost is a terrible TV show."

    Those are all opinions and it's obvious that they're opinions. You could prepend "In my opinion" to each one and no one would complain, but it's unnecessary, and people say stuff like this all the time with full knowledge that they're opinions. Their status as opinions isn't contingent on anyone stating that they are; they're just opinions because they're value judgements or statements of preference.

    I've found that it's generally easy to separate opinions from statements of fact, and so it's not required that anyone be the "that's just your opinion!" police. Of course it's their opinion; that's why they said it. The weird thing about complaining that opinions should be explicitly demarcated is that is suggests that either a) you have trouble telling the difference between fact and opinion or b) you assume the person saying them doesn't know the difference. Both of those are bad.

  184. NeutralGHFigsFeb 25, 2013

    If my friends/family are watching some awesome show like say, LOST, I'm not waiting for TV companies/netflix/whoever to get their act together.

    Lost is among the worst examples you could have chosen. It was one of the first shows available for day-after purchase on iTunes, and from the third season on had free day-after streaming on ABC's own site. And it was literally broadcast over the air for free.

    So to be clear: You really are saying that even eight hours is too much of a delay. You really are saying that you want exactly what cable TV customers get, but that you don't want to pay anything for it.

    Since you like getting free things so much, here's some free advice: If your relationships with your friends and family can't transcend such a trivial incompatibility as having not watched the same television show at exactly the same moment, maybe you should try watching it with them. Surely between all of you, somebody is willing to actually pay for something that is allegedly so crucial to how you interact with one another. (If none are willing to pay for it, that raises the question of how any of you are able to afford the time involved.)

  185. NeutraljamesoswaldFeb 20, 2013

    The implication is actually that cat videos are more enjoyable per instant than opera. If that were not the case, people would always watch opera. But if there were a high fixed cost, such as a ticket price, or the mental energy required to pay attention, the opera becomes relatively attractive. Imagine driving to a movie theater and paying $10 to watch a 2 minute cat video. It would be absurd.

    My point about the middle ages was that at that time, the fixed cost for all media consumption was high, so no one even considered short videos (preformances?). Now, when fixed costs are lower, you see a dramatically different pattern of consumption.

    High cost/high benefit media is still around - just think about a long running tv show like Lost or Game of Thrones, where the audience is expected to put a ton of mental effort into the show. So I don't worry about a race to the bottom.

  186. NeutraluntogFeb 7, 2013

    After the first episode (and definitely after the first seasom) JJ Abrams had no involvement in Lost. You can blame Lindelof and Cuse if you hated Lost.

  187. NegativecsenseFeb 7, 2013

    I've never personally watched Lost, but I've been told that in the first episode they explain the concept of a plane crash several times. "We were up there...and then the engine failed...and now, we're down here!"

    If this is an accurate characterization, it says a lot of things -- none of them favorable -- about the show, the director, and the audience.

  188. PositivedavesimsFeb 4, 2013

    Only to a limited degree. Yes, there were soaps and other serials that had long-running narrative arcs, but not with the kind of sophistication contemporary writers are using.

    Let's call it the 'Post-Buffy' school of thought, where character nuance, motivation, back-story, plot and sub-plot are all delivered with a kind of attention to detail formerly only used by novelists. There may be a few examples from the 60's -- The Prisoner comes to mind -- but even that can't really touch the narrative layers we've seen in the last decade: The Wire, Lost, Mad Men, Breaking Bad, Battlestar Galactica, Game of Thrones (TV as novel if there ever was one), Six Feet Under, Dexter, Band of Brothers, and so forth. These aren't just books, they're novels.

    This I think is partially the result of the ability of viewers to sit down and spend concentrated time with a series when they come out on DVD. The first time my wife and I did this was maybe 10 years ago with Buffy and Angel, and it was the most fun I'd ever had with television. This was a new experience. We'd lose 4 or 5 hours late on a Friday just chaining one after another, like the Battlestar Galactica skit on Portlandia.

    What I think Netflix is doing, and probably what it has massive amounts of data to back up (I watched Buffy through Netflix, come to think of it), is that this new type of viewer engagement -- long sessions of series "gorging" -- has completely transformed the way we experience television. I think this is why they released the House of Cards episodes all at once. This is also probably why they're not releasing viewing numbers -- the new experience context of contemporary viewers has very little to do with the old Nielsen ratings arc, and would be a poor measure of the show's success, from Netflix' own point of view.

  189. PositivegagegeFeb 1, 2013

    As someone who watched many episodes of LOST in a single sitting every night for weeks, I can guarantee you that waiting for the next episode is not what made LOST addictive.

    edit: I agree though that it might kill some of the "watercooler-talk" or the "figure out the mysterious symbolism in last weeks episode" stuff. But those things are just gimmicks meant to keep you watching the show anyway. If they're releasing the whole thing at once, maybe there's no need for them to help market the show.

  190. NegativesmogzerJan 15, 2013

    I recommend.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Farm

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_%28book%29

    Btw in Lost why did sayd was nice guy in the beginning and died as an evil torturer ? And why does every action series and movies, event toy story 3 promotes torture ?

  191. Neutralkevin_morrillJan 7, 2013

    In case anyone is curious, the music is from the TV show Lost and is composed by Michael Giacchino. This is one of the best themes called Life and Death.

    You can hear more at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nH1rCXv36A

  192. PositiveergestDec 26, 2012

    I never watched Lost when it ran and even when it ended in 2010. My friends kept pushing but I never gave it a chance until a month ago. Once I made past a few episodes, I was hooked!!

  193. NeutraldougbarrettDec 4, 2012

    I disagree. From what the article sounded like, Disney is all in on this.

    Disney has been providing Netflix content for their streaming service probably since day 1. I remember when it first launched, I believe Lost was available on the server. All 6 seasons are available and have been since the series finale.

    The future for entertainment is not physical media that you can buy. It's much easier and quicker for me to switch my TV to my Roku box, load up Netflix and start a movie than it is to switch to Bluray, and wait for it to load and show previews. I can't remember the last time I purchased a DVD/Bluray that wasn't in the bargin bin for $2, but we watched Netflix just last night.

    I don't think Disney is going to lose out on Star Wars sales if they start streaming it, there will always be people that want to buy the package so when the internet is off, and all they have is a portable DVD player, they can watch Star Wars, but by making this deal with Netflix they are only increasing their profits, there is no devaluing going on here.

  194. Neutralridiculous_fishAug 15, 2012

    As a huge fan of many big-budget TV shows and movies, I am not inclined to gloat about the death of the content industry until there's a viable replacement business model.

    It's easy to criticize the content industry for their abusive practices and outdated business model, and point to something like the direct sales approach, which has had encouraging successes in books and music. But it's wholly unproven on the budgetary scale of, say, Game of Thrones, Lost, or The Avengers. And if content is distributed freely (through lending or otherwise), then it may be that the creators cannot recoup their costs, and this content simply won't be made.

    It's possible that a Kickstarter-like model will emerge, but that's far from guaranteed, and I observe that Kickstarter projects themselves operate on a "scarcity emulator." For example, projects often provide artificially exclusive digital content at certain funding levels.

    It may come down to a conscious choice to accept some limitations on our personal digital property rights in order to enable something we can all enjoy. We make that same tradeoff in the meat world all the time: you cannot block a river, sunlight, a view, a storm drain, etc. even though they're on your property. I would prefer limiting my property rights to that content over that content disappearing altogether.

    Lastly, pirates are no allies of personal property rights. Pirates distribute unambiguously stolen content (for example, the X-Men Origins workprint) just as readily as merely copyrighted content.

  195. NeutralrkallaApr 2, 2012

    From the business perspective, we all understand the rumored incremental hardware updates here from Microsoft and Sony; Nintendo ate everyone's lunch for 5 years with last-gen, 3-year old tech[1] that cost little to make while Microsoft and Sony hemorrhaged money until what seems like last year... not to mention the huge technical hurdle for devs and middleware companies trying to reach parity on each platform.

    WIN: If Microsoft goes the incremental route with the same Xbox OS a-la Apple's iOS evolution, they keep middleware compatibility with larger graphical budgets for teams to play with... EVERYONE likes this and every dev team that has shipped an Xbox 360 game hits the ground running immediately -- possibly opening up the doors to dual Xbox 360 and Xbox 720 releases of their games (one with lower quality textures and rougher geometric assets and the other with higher-end business) -- I am sweeping my hands across a fairly complex problem here, but you get the point. With compatibility intact, there are interesting things that can happen here that we've seen work on the iOS ecosystem. (maybe not for Triple-A devs, but for budget minded games, this could work wonderfully especially as digital-downloads and indie devs grow).

    LOSS: Sony has to make a clean cut and scuttle the last 8 years moving onto an x86 design, new OS, new middleware all new QA cycles and retraining all the PS3 devs.

    WIN: Sony now matches the same arch as the Xbox-next (same CPU optimizations apply and same GPU family) and we can stop getting these damn port-style games that never take advantage of the extra Blu-ray room or cell processing power.

    LOSS: No revolutionary boost in performance if the hardware rumors are true. I have no doubt the bump in specialized/tuned hardware will give us real-time versions of the Unreal Engine 4 demos (of that smoking guy that beats up mechs) BUT, at 4k resolution and 120hz for 3D? Not for every game. I imagine we will see something akin to what we have now with most games running at 720p with the few rare tuned ones actually running at 1080p resolutions. I would guess next-gen will offer 4k resolution on some titles and 3D on others while running at 1080p or some such combination. Obviously if it is a simpler game like a Wave Racer, we'll get both, but for Gears of War 15 and Mass Effect 32, I doubt it.

    WIN: Faster game dev cycles means we get some more impressive titles on the improved hardware/experience sooner. Don't have to wait 2 years post-launch for the first real good game.

    LOSS: Next-generation consoles are going to be engineered to be all-in-one entertainment hubs... TV cable tuning, DVR, streaming, apps, social, games, mobile-tie-in, etc. etc... this will make jumping between consoles harder as you stake your claim in the Microsoft or Sony (or possibly Nintendo -- yet to be seen if they can pull off a Network) camp and build up your life/existence within their walled garden. This generation it was nothing more than rep points, next-generation (especially Microsoft) will be throwing every Facebook-esque psychologically engineered trick in the book to keep you ON their platform, consuming content through their channel with your credit card en-tow, sharing your pictures with friends and building your character's rep from game to game to game, movie to movie and app to app.

    I sincerely doubt we (the harder-core folks) will all have all 3 next-gen systems this next time around and will most likely have 1 (probably Xbox-next) as the cost of flipping between them will be bigger than just powering on Console X to play game Y for a few hours.

    LOSS x2: Double the resolution on the Kinect-next, rumored eye-tracking, multi-person tracking and more accurate voice controls? I can't even imagine what is in store (e.g. "You don't seem to be enjoying this episode of Lost, would you like to skip to the next episode or can we recommend Battlestar Galactica?" -- say "Start Mass Effect, invite Scotty32, Soldier load-out" -- experience {episode of Law and Order, McDonald's Billboard in background... notification popup...} "Just emailed you a buy-1-get-1-free BigMac coupon for McDonalds! The nearest one is 2 blocks from you... yummy! Say 'Pause' to pause what you are watching and go grab lunch!")

    You get the idea...

    [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii#Technical_specifications

  196. NeutralcarlesfeMar 7, 2012

    My take is that Apple lets rumors run, then gets the best ones and plans them for next releases. You know, like they did in Lost, the TV show.

  197. Neutralalan_cxJan 28, 2012

    Im in the UK. I regularly download US TV shows at US pace. Take a show like Lost, I wanted to be in the online discussions. Unless you are at US pace, you are basically screwed.

    I pay for all the channels that shows like Lost will eventually appear on. So, as far as I am concerned, my habit is perfectly legit.

    Lost specifically got to the point where it was aired with in 24 hrs of the US broadcast, and that was fine. In practice I would see the download with in that time span anyway. This is the way to go to stop people downloading.

    Problem is, downloading turns out to be easier and more convenient that actually being told when to sit and watch, and how. Its easier than using the broadcasters on line offerings. So, I still download.

    Give me a "legit" way that is a quick, easy and free as torrents, etc, I'll use it like a shot.

    As for people in the US downloading Downtown, well fair enough. Its should be as available to them as I want it to be here.

  198. NegativerickmbJan 28, 2012

    That's not really new, here in the Netherlands the gap between US and local broadcasts has now often been reduced to less than a week for certain series.

    A 3 day window however is still too long for shows with real fans that want to participate in the global conversation. It may work for procedurals and sitcoms, but not for shows with big stories and cliffhangers like Lost, 24 and such.

    Never mind the fact that you still get all the disadvantages of a commercial broadcast: fixed time, annoying station logo's, subtitles (or dubbing depending on the country) and most of all: incessant commercial breaks.

    No thanks.

  199. NeutralcoobJan 28, 2012

    With the later seasons of Lost, Sky One (UK) aired the newest episodes the night after their US premiere, supposedly to cut down on Sky losing viewers to pirating.

    Anecdotally, it worked.

  200. Neutral_dpsDec 25, 2011

    Completely agree that the questions should be asked honestly and with an eye on social benefits and costs. I'm no fan of the copyright system as-is precisely because I think those tradeoffs are poorly balanced given modern technology.

    As for whether it is "bad" to lose capacity to do things like "Lost" I think (for my value system) it's clearly very bad even if 9/10 such projects are not of lasting value. These kinds of mega-projects allow us to push the frontier of what is possible as entertainment and human expression. If you don't particularly like "Lost" for artistic reasons (fair enough ;-), then perhaps substitute anything by Pixar; losing society's ability to make "Wall-E" or "Up" means a duller, less inspiring world.

    Of course, you could similarly disagree with the artistic merits of Pixar films as being a worthwhile tradeoff. But at some point that line of reasoning just becomes "I'm personally happy with art made on the cheap by a small group and no marketing or distribution costs; I'm ok sacrificing everything else."

  201. Neutral_dpsDec 25, 2011

    People certainly get attached to their historical revenues, but let's not forget that businesses like books, movies, and music all have hit-dominated economics under the current model and that this has co-evolved with the kinds of products that are available. Cutting the potential upside of the big hits does disproportionate damage to the overall industry's expected returns. I know you were specifically discussing books where initial production costs are low (in comparison to marketing), but consider what happens to film and television.

    As you say, under a new regime without copyright as-is, new people may come in to fill the void. However, they may not be real replacements for the old-media dinosaurs. If it becomes impossible to try to make something like "Lost" with any reasonable expectation of a return, then products as complex and expensive as "Lost" simply won't get made. We should be cognizant of this kind of tradeoff as policy evolves.

    I think the recent story about Louis C.K. points out one possible angle of filling the void; it's comparatively cheap for him to try a stunt like that. Generally, things produced by individuals with relatively little "refinement" (sound, graphics, costumes, marketing, etc.) seem like good candidates for business model innovation. On the other hand, the pilot episode of "Lost" cost millions of dollars just in production (i.e. before they even had any idea if it would be popular and got a marketing budget). If we want a new regime that still allows such projects to be undertaken, Kickstarter-like services and "Please just pay me $5" probably aren't going to cut it (no disrespect to Kickstarter or Louis). I don't know if, in the context of big budget projects, they even represent a meaningful step toward a solution.

  202. NeutralsecretwhistleDec 12, 2011

    Even though Spotify is a "piracy killer" (at least in Sweden, if not elsewhere), I think the labels will be more than happy to bleed it dry and leave its lifeless corpse on the side of the road as they search for the next Big Thing to strangle, bleed dry and leave behind.

    Two reasons:

    1. The major labels, like most of the big content producers, are extremely interested in short term gains, even if it means losses down the road. As long as something is still "down the road," it won't affect this year s/quarter's/month's profitability.

    Take a look at Hulu. It's a shadow of its former self. It used to be a solid site with great content, but those controlling the content have decided it's not making enough money fast enough. The fix? Remove content. Move it around. Chop it up. Stagger releases randomly. Put X season on Hulu but have Y season exist only as a selection of clips or have it go missing entirely.

    See also: Netflix. Because the major studios are unwilling to trade DVD dollars for digital dimes, they've gone about pricing themselves out of the market. Netflix is also a "piracy killer," but the studios are too concerned with getting the money up front to pay attention to how much content is being leaked out the back.

    The studios also seem to think that people will follow them to their own sites or digital offerings, but the content they offer is generally crippled by DRM or requires the installation of proprietary software or another set of logins and passwords and people in general just do not have an interest in setting up yet another account just to watch a couple of Lost episodes.

    2. Even though everything mentioned is a "piracy killer," the simple fact is that, for many people, the service (Spotify, Netflix, etc.) becomes the end product. The services don't lead towards more sales of other physical or digital goods. This doesn't fit into the major labels'/studios' plans at all. They want to sell more of their stuff, not necessarily collect royalties from someone else's service.

    So, if they manage to drain Spotify completely or at least force it to give up its US operations, it won't hurt them much. By that point, another service will come along and they can pile on and bleed it dry as well. The plan, I suppose, is to keep riding these little income spikes until it's 1994 again, or something.

    They must still harbor the belief that, once the other options dry up, people will head back to the brick-and-mortar and purchase content in physical forms that carry much higher profit margins.

  203. Negativetomjen3Nov 15, 2011

    Alias has the same problem. The best solution I have ever heard is to watch the first few minutes of the next episode to solve the cliffhanger.

    But excessive cliffhangers are mostly what turned me of Lost.

  204. MixedscottkragerNov 8, 2011

    Darn, I miss Lost.

    Well, Seasons 1 and 2 at least.

  205. NeutraltheduferJul 18, 2011

    My best guess was that its a reference to the island in the tv show Lost, but I fail to see why that would be different from the gravity on earth.

  206. NeutralcfinkeJul 13, 2011

    http://isthisyourpaperonsingleservingsites.com/ provides a surprising amount of information on these kinds of sites.

    "One of the earliest examples was islostarepeat.com [created in 2006]. This site indicated whether the episode of Lost playing during the current week was a new broadcast."

  207. NeutralblaqsmithJun 17, 2011

    The deaf community has been nothing short of begging Netflix to add captions for over 5 years now, and have essentially been ignored the entire time. The usual excuse was that it was technically impossible to add the captions (bs, really).

    In the last year or so they've made slight motions towards implementing ~some~ captions, but have done a very bad job of it. Most shows would just have random episodes captioned. So you start a new show, then a few episodes into the season realize you couldn't keep watching them in order because the next few episodes were uncaptioned. To say that this is frustrating, especially for an arc based show like Lost (which was their flagship example of "we are captioning for you!" for the longest time) is an understatement.

    This lawsuit is essentially the deaf community having reached a boiling point. These were patient people who tried for the longest time to get Netflix to act like a decent company, and it just didn't happen. It's rather sad that without this lawsuit, they probably never would.

  208. Neutralscott_sMay 17, 2011

    Usages are completely different. People look at a few YouTube videos in a given day, usually at low quality for a few minutes. Some people, like me and many people I know, have completely replaced cable and network tv with Netflix. Streaming an episode of Lost at 720p is going to take up a lot of bandwidth.

  209. NeutralmichaeltyFeb 22, 2011

    It probably hasn't helped that TV can now feature long-running complex shows (Lost, the Sopranos, the Wire, Dexter, Mad Men, the Office, etc) that 2 hour movies can't beat in terms of character exploration and plot depth.

  210. NeutralZachPruckowskiJan 18, 2011

    Yeah, I've long thought it's a great idea that circumvents a lot of the weaknesses of tightly-constrained TV storytelling.

    The problem is the economics. It seems people tend to respond negatively to production values below a certain standard. Cable productions run about $2M/episode, which translates to roughly $3M/hour or $50K/minute. Even if you can cut that by 20%, you still need to make a serious amount of money, and that's a lot of $2.10 iTunes purchases or $0.xy (I don't know what that number is, but it's got to be smaller than a dollar) Netflix streams that you've got to get in order to break even. And that's for the production values of "White Collar" or "Leverage", not "LOST" or "Rome"

    On top of that, you have the business costs. You've got to pay the overhead costs, and you've got to pay development costs. Half the new shows that get a slot on TV fail, and getting one slot filled requires shooting 2-3 pilot episodes at a couple million a pop. In addition to expansion, you've got to replace your shows every few years, since (a) even the best shows get stale after a while and (b) costs go up every year.

  211. NeutralrecurserOct 31, 2010

    In Japan, cinema releases are regularly 9-12 months behind DVD-quality bittorrent releases. I recently saw a rental DVD in the 'new releases' section which I'd rented 3 years earlier outside of Japan. Similarly, my wife loves Desperate Housewives, but Japanese releases are 18+ months after the American release.

    I have two choices - I can download a movie right now in around 10 minutes without getting off the couch, and watch it in widescreen/surround in the comfort of my home, or I can wait a year or more to pay $22 to see it at the cinema. By the time that year is up, if I've somehow managed to avoid reading spoilers online, and waited months after the rest of the world has stopped talking about the movie, there's a chance I might even enjoy the trip to the cinema.

    I would love to be able to pay $10 to get a decent quality download at the same time the rest of the world is watching a movie. Hell, I'd probably pay $20 if it was something I really wanted to see - it'd still be cheaper than the cinema. If iTunes Japan had a rental section (or if the local online rental stores were up-to-date with the rest of the world) I'd probably be spending hundreds of dollars a year on it.

    I realize it's probably fiendishly complicated to take an English-language movie, negotiate multiple foreign release dates, translate it, subtitle it, market it in the local language etc, but it seems like it should be fairly easy to allow a non-US English-speaker to buy a (DRMed if necessary) downloadable copy of a movie online a reasonable time after it's been released in the states. It takes the production companies a year, yet two days after a new episode of Lost has aired in the states there'll be multiple fan-subbed versions doing the rounds on Japanese p2p networks.

    I have no idea how to fix the current system (and I'm sure smarter people than me have tried and failed), but I can't help but feel these companies are missing a huge opportunity internationally.

  212. NeutralbloomshedOct 31, 2010

    "This fits with evolutionary perspectives that examine social pressures on the emergence of intelligence, and research showing a neural overlap between social-cognitive and executive brain functions."

    ___________________________________

    OK, so research shows a link between being successful socially and developing higher level brain functioning. This reminds me of a lot of training I've had since I've been working in education. The brain is like a muscle and there are ways to make it stronger.

    I heard a professor give a great talk about the brain and the connection between our emotions and our ability to learn. Basically, stressful/negative emotions trigger our lower brain (our "alligator" brain controlling fight or flight) and keep us from operating at a high level of executive functioning like reasoning.

    He had a great illustration for what happens to our brains when we feel emotionally safe and we begin to operate in our frontal lobe. He called it "flow" and described the feeling as when we get lost in something and forget what time it is and we stop paying attention to what's going on outside our immediate vicinity. It's a feeling I think we all recognize and enjoy.

    This prof also said it could take somewhere around 3 hours for a student to be emotionally ready to "flow" after his/her lower brain has been triggered due to an alarming stimulus.

    Our brains are constantly creating and destroying neurological connections. By understanding how our brain works best, we can strengthen our ability to access that "flow" which allows us to operate most effectively.

    On a lighter note, I wonder how much smarter Americans would be on a national level if they watched fewer "gripping/exciting/scary" TV shows where they're constantly being bombarded with alarming stimuli?

  213. NeutralltOct 18, 2010

    It's not necessary, but it's damn convenient. That's mostly the fault of the content distributors, IMO, that actively prevent honest consumers of legaly acquiring things due to outdated regional distribution models.

    I don't live in the US either and saw this more times than I care to remember: "you can't buy this digital download because it's not available in your region. print and fill out this form, mail to your local distributor and you'll get it in a few weeks".

    Want to watch Lost finale? Wait a couple months until it's been spoiled to death. The lastest album from your favorite band? A technical book, games, it's all the same. Sure, it's all purely convenience, unnecessary things, but it's digital bits that have people all around the world, with their credit card in their hand waiting to consume them.

    I've seen people use proxies and whatnot to be able to give their money, say, to Apple to buy music in iTunes which is not available here. I think it's absurd to pay to get something that end up being infriging anyway.

    Not to mention all the hoops customers have to jump through (quotas, DRM, exclusive content, DLC) that pirates don't have to worry.

    I like the honest position Shane Carruth (who written, directed, produced the movie Primer pretty much by himself) about torrenting his movie:

    http://primermovie.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=1626#1626

    (somewhere else he says he received several tips through paypal from people who downloaded but rejected them all due to legal issues)

    All that said, I think there's a huge market for someone to provide a way for people around the world to purchase legal bits of pretty much anything, if they can work through the legal issues. Steam is already doing a good job at this in the gaming market, but there's still plenty of space there.

  214. PositivetptacekOct 17, 2010

    You mean except for The Sopranos, The Wire, The Shield, Mad Men, Breaking Bad, The West Wing, Six Feet Under, Dexter, BSG (gak), Friday Night Lights, Lost, Sons of Anarchy, Deadwood, Extras, Damages, Weeds (gak), House...

    What's tricky about this comparison is that there's so much North American TV. A lot of it is ABC sitcoms, yes.

  215. NegativedefenApr 27, 2010

    For me, Lost is a deeply frustrating show. For at least the past 2 years I feel like I have been "chasing the dragon" - trying to regain that excitement I know I felt about the show at one point, even though I can't point to exactly when that was, or what I was excited about.

    I guess I'm just disappointed that all the cool stuff that happened in seasons 2-5 was mostly filler, buying time until we got to the planned end in season 6. I'm sad that they neutered my favorite character, even though it seems necessary given how the plot is playing out. And I'm a little bit upset that the writers knew what they were doing all along, taking advantage of people's naive belief that they wouldn't dare give us all these juicy plot points with no resolution!

    In retrospect, what we need is for someone to make "Lost: The Good Parts" which will be a 60-90 minute summary of everything that happens in seasons 2-5. That would greatly reduce the anguish of having watched so much with so little payoff.

  216. NegativegizmoApr 27, 2010

    The thing that annoys me about lost (and we're leaving HN territory here) isn't just that the show makes things up as it goes along, or that the show pretends to be clever... it's that people actually believe the show is clever.

    In a way, I can respect it that the producers/writers sit in a room and decide to throw mystery after illogical mystery at the viewer just because it does wonders for their ratings. What I can't respect is that people enjoy and are captivated by things that obviously have no explanation, or a Deus Ex Machina that is supposed to pass for one. What's the point of a mystery if you as the viewer can't think about possible explanations?

    What is it that people like about Lost? I understand why people watch sci-fi, or medical dramas, or romantic comedies, or gross out comedies, or documentaries. All those things give the viewer something it wants (a laugh, a sob story, facts about history, and so on). But a show like Lost? I just don't get it.

  217. NeutralpohlMar 3, 2010

    It wastes 4K of storage that might otherwise be devoted to something more "notable", like a plot summary for last night's episode of Lost.

  218. NeutralnatriusFeb 23, 2010

    If you don't think that more--or at the very least, different--financial regulation is necessary, then you must be a time traveler from 2006. I hope you didn't accidentally catch an episode of Lost during your stay. Talk about spoilers.

  219. NegativedpcanFeb 15, 2010

    Bug report :) It got Lost wrong. It said it airs today. It doesn't, except in reruns. Then it doesn't know it airs tomorrow, and says it doesn't air again for 8 days.

    Is the app only showing for "New" episodes?

  220. NeutralPoiesisFeb 11, 2010

    This is somewhat true, and it is the reason I started watching Lost. But I just don't think that a kid (or adult) is going to be that socially backward just because they didn't watch a TV show. I mean, sure--you hang out with people who like the same stuff that you do, so you have stuff to talk about normally. Fine. But it's not like you seek out stuff to do just because--not because it sounds interesting--but because you want to be able to talk about it. Sounds like a desperate way to get friends.

  221. NeutralwallflowerFeb 10, 2010

    I haven't had a TV for three years. The hardest part was giving up Lost in Season Two. I feel lost when friends talk about "The Wire", "Weeds", "24" but I'd rather live vicariously through my own life. I don't even Hulu. I almost feel like TV is a treadmill - just keeping up with show plot trajectories.

    Getting rid of a TV isn't a magic solution for life's problems. It doesn't make you more social. It doesn't make you focus on your big projects though. You can easily whittle away free time surfing on your iPhone on your couch (as I do).

    I recently saw a two-year old boy whose parents had been raising without TV. They've succumbed. Thomas the Train. Previously, without TV, he would literally cry on the floor for 20 min. straight - because what the heck do small kids do if the parents can't distract them with the real opiate of the masses, in Karl Marx parlance.

  222. Neutraldasil003Feb 2, 2010

    Lost Season 6 starts tomorrow and I have high high hopes. Perhaps too high.

  223. NeutralgojomoNov 16, 2009

    Yes "Lost", a little "The Wire", yes "The Sopranos".

    If the info is essential to "keep up" -- that is, it wasn't completely predicted by the earlier trajectory of the show, and it's not easily ignorable as subsidiary to the main plot -- then it is a "twist", in my meaning.

    The shows you mention use multiple overlapping story arcs -- some for just the current show, some for several episodes, some for the season, some for the entire run -- in order to fight short attention spans. There's something for everyone, including lots of short cuts between simultaneous (or flashback) story lines, to keep the pace of "reveals" sufficient for even fidgety, clicker-happy viewers.

  224. NeutralghshephardNov 7, 2009

    I haven't had Cable/Satellite since 2002. I started watching all my TV on DVDs that I bought from Amazon, but then switched to iTunes around 2006.

    Now it's mostly a combination of iTunes/DVD - I'm pretty certain it's less expensive than subscribing to TV.

    The good part of this (and it should be emphasized) - is that you now watch for a _purpose_ - Latest episode of Lost, BSG, Dexter, Weeds, South Park, Doll House, BtVS, Angel, The Wire, DeadWood, Heroes, The Office, Dr. Horrible, Mad Men, Parks and Recreation, Castle, Californication, Dr. Who, Kings, Sarah Connor Chronicles, True Blood, Torchwood.

    Any time that might have been lost to just passively watching television, news, is now, of course, lost to passively reading ycombinator, nyt, wsj, groklaw... :-)

  225. NeutralgojomoAug 22, 2009

    I enjoyed D9, despite a lot of internal inconsistencies, nonsensical yelling, and implausible violence.

    But, I also enjoyed HN more before testimonials for heavily-promoted mass-market movies -- number one at the box office last week! -- were top stories.

    There's tons of such general-interest, pop-culture, pure-entertainment content out there -- even if filtered for techie/scifi tastes. (See a blog like io9, for example.) It could fill much of the front page, every day.

    But I guess there's nothing to be done about it; there's 43 upvotes and counting, and it's number one on /classic too.

    So I, for one, welcome our future of big-budget movie trailers, funny robot videos, and debates about 'Lost'/'BSG'/etc. Forward, to mass appeal!

  226. NeutraljrussinoJul 19, 2009

    If you want the most recent episodes of LOST, this should work:

    http://bit.ly/gJtxL

    It may not be so useful right now, since the season is over.

    DISCLAIMER: I currently work for this company (www.truveo.com). We run a video search engine.

    AFAIK, Hulu doesn't provide episodes of LOST; they're only available on ABC's website.

  227. NeutralyurylifshitsJul 19, 2009

    There is another issue: a lot of quality content is not available in the form of feeds: event feeds, shopping feeds, feeds of modern art or last episodes of LOST available on Hulu.

    Thus, an interesting opportunity is extraction + feed reader. You first extract and format quality content, then serve it to a user. Few days ago I released a demo: Photo Reader. Go check it out: http://semabox.com

    I am actively working in the area of "semantic news". Talk to me if you are in the same field.

    Yury Lifshits yury@yury.name

  228. PositiveKirbyJul 16, 2009

    People like to claim that TV is only full of crap. This is grade A, Microsoft-FUD-level, Bullshit.

    Like anything, sure, most of it is crap. Just like if you went to a bookstore and picked up 10 random fantasy novels. You might conclude that they're all just cookie cutter pablum - most are - but then you miss out on George R. R. Martin's Song of Fire and Ice, Guy Gavriel Kay's Tigana, LeGuin's Earthsea, and other truly excellent works of fiction.

    But like anything, it takes some investment to tell the good from the bad. If you just watch Jon & Kate Plus 8, Entertainment Tonight, and According to Jim, yeah, you're better off without the TV altogether. But I claim that there's more good TV being made now than at any time in history, particularly for niche markets.

    Here's some of my recommendations: Mythbusters, Penn & Teller's Bullshit, Supernatural, Dollhouse, The Office, 30 Rock, Lost, The Simpsons (not as great as it was, but still fun), The Daily Show/Colbert Report, Mad Men... and more, there's just a ton of really high quality work being done.

    If your argument is that instead, you watch things online/through netflix, that makes sense. If I didn't enjoy live sports sometimes, I'd consider doing the same.

    Not everyone has to have a hobby of watching television, or movies, or reading for that matter, but the opinion that it's all crap is extremely ill-informed and snobbish, and I strongly encourage it to be dropped as something that makes you sound actively stupid when you say it. It's an anti-pattern.

  229. NeutralfrooJun 1, 2009

    In Australia, BitTorrent is especially popular among those who want to catch up with US television shows that appear months or years later on TV down under. Money is not so much of an issue for them, they simply want to see the latest Lost or Heroes episodes.

    I'd just like to reiterate this point.

    As a pay TV subscriber (foxtel), it always astounds me to have seen episodes like Battlestar Galactica and Heroes advertised as "aired in the US only hours before" (those were the exact words)- for the same episodes I had downloaded and watched about 12 weeks prior.

    It's not that I don't want to pay for the content, I mean, I'm a pay TV subscriber, I'm paying for eventual access to it - it's frustrating to be living in a global community and friends can be discussing an episode of one of the few shows I do watch that has already aired but due to odd licensing/distribution deals, that content is just not available legally in any timely manner, even if you WANT to pay for it.

    I've already ranted on this topic many times before (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=569114 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=498159 plus others), I know lots of people who are Australians and who feel exactly the same way - its not that we don't want to pay for that content, but their bad deals are kind of forcing our hands given the communication between people moves at a much faster pace than the licensing deals.

    I kind of saw the same sort of data the other day when I had looked at the Alexa top 100 by country and was interested to see mininova specifically come in at #37 (depending on how accurate you argue Alexa to be http://www.alexa.com/topsites/countries;1/AU) so seeing data like this only confirmed my initial suspicions and argument based off anecdotal evidence.

    Basically, get a clue tv industry...

  230. NeutraljohnnybgoodeMay 17, 2009

    You said their business model wasn't at all being made obsolete. Now you're saying they need to take a page from TV and focus on less extravagant budgets to survive? I guess if you just mean they'll still make movies, then sure.

    The dollar per minute figures are slightly misleading, because if you took just the first couple of episodes of Lost, the number would be much higher. The pilot cost $10 to $14 million to produce. That's about 0.14 million dollars per minute. Of course the average cost goes down as more episodes of the same show are made. That's why they filmed some movies (like LOTR and the Pirates sequels, I think) back-to-back.

  231. NeutralfrooMay 17, 2009

    Umm, its exactly what its about.

    He's complaining that "the big evil internet" is killing their business, because more people are consuming more media.

    Yet however, the actual data shows that ticket sales in cinema are actually going up, but not at the same rate of consumption of those films. The people that had no intention of paying top shelf price for those films are not.

    Yet the budgets for films have gone way up so that these studio's can compete with each other. Yet, the growth of ticket sales hasn't grown at the same rate (while rentals have stayed fairly static, just the distribution channels have changed somewhat) - so their profit margins have become less.

    So he's complaining that the people who had no intention of paying to see those films, are not paying to see those films and because they've chosen to raise the budgets of those films significantly, its killing their business.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_films

    Films like Titanic and Waterworld were notoriously expensive for their time. Now that's considered nearly an average budget for a blockbuster - inflation sure as hell hasn't gone up by that much, and costs of actual production have gone down with going to digital media, digital editing etc....

    What they really need to focus on, is less extravagant budgets. Take a leaf out of the book of TV.

    Lost, which is a notoriously expensive TV show to produce, cost $44 million dollars for the first season which consisted of 25 episodes at 44 minutes running time each... or roughly 0.04 million dollars per minute of entertainment for the end viewer.

    Similarly, lets look at Spiderman 3.. Sony Pictures most expensive film, $258 million dollars cost with a running time of 139 minutes, or 1.86 million dollars per minute of entertainment for the end viewer.

    See the big divide there? It's really a function of cost of production.

  232. NeutralJimmyLMay 7, 2009

    The international distribution market is the problem. Let's say I'm a network and I come up with a show named _Lost_. I broadcast it on my network in the US, and it's pretty profitable and popular. I see people are pirating it, so I put it on Hulu and regain some of my previously-lost market share.

    Now, a year late a network in England wants to show it. I can then sell them the rights to an audience that has never been formally exposed to it - sure, some have pirated the episodes, but not many. I can get a bunch of money for this. If, however, those British viewers could have seen it on Hulu as it was coming out in real-time, a whole lot more of them would have been exposed to the show, and hence I'd command a much lower price for licensing _Lost_ to that British network.

    Think of it from a network perspective (and remembering McLuhan's notion that the purpose of TV shows is to sell advertising, and that the content is just a way to make you look at it). If you let international viewers on Hulu you'll lose the money I mentioned above, but in addition you'll have trouble selling advertising on it, since domestic advertisers don't care about someone in Canada seeing their ads (and the viewership would be small enough that no one would buy a contract just for those ads). If you don't let internationals see it, you'll preserve your resale price, and make it easier to sell ads both on your electronic network, and on the electronic network of whoever you sell the rights to.

    Which one makes more money for the network?

  233. NeutralfrooApr 8, 2009

    I wrote a little about it here.

    http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=502705

    But essentially I believe that there is a real disconnect between the cost of production and the amount of entertainment that a viewer can get, especially since things are approaching a free pricepoint (impact of filesharing) and TV and the Internet converging (like PG has written about recently) along with major upgrades in bandwidth.

    I also think that as home entertainment systems become more widespread and advanced, people will prefer the convenience of watching from home instead of cinemas, especially if it is significantly cheaper and the experience can be a little more interactive (internet overlays)

    Anyway, throwing down some numbers, doing some quick back of the envelope math, The Dark Knight cost $180 million to make and it has a runtime of 152 minutes. So an approximate cost of $1.1 mil/minute for the production.

    Conversely, Season 1 of Lost (which is known in the TV industry as being notoriously expensive to produce) cost $44 million for 22 episodes of 44 minutes approx running time each, or 0.045 mil/minute.

    Yet in terms of entertainment for the home viewer, 1 minute of entertainment is 1 minute and tastes vary - so why the big difference in price of production? The major costs are salaries of large numbers of people involved and technology (sets/effects etc) [1].

    This is why we start seeing ludicrous distribution agreements in place to maximise profits so that the economics of this weird system can work [2], eg - regions on DVD's

    A little anecdote about what I tried to do the other month. I live in Australia, and I jumped onto itunes because I was curious about what shows were available. A lot of the shows I enjoy were not on there, but even more surprising was that some shows that did exist were missing seasons. The worst case of this was a certain show only having seasons 1, 3 and 5 available on itunes - this is a result of stupid distribution agreements and simply being unable to put it up on itunes yet.

    However, I could jump onto any torrent tracker and download everything for free, including the seasons that were not available through legal online systems. There is something wrong when the path of least resistance is unlawful.

    So my idea is that you could produce content for the online market using a process fairly similar to a digital animation studio [3], just limiting yourself with digital assets and working it a bit like a sitcom. Limited pre-made sets, characters, story driven and episodic content.

    Your production pipeline then essentially becomes a case of an asynchronous digital puppet show and if you keep most of your talent inhouse, you could work it using a team about the size of a small to medium sized startup.

    Anyway that's the basics, I haven't detailed much about my monetisation strategies (there's more that can be done than just advertising) and there's a little bit of secret sauce I can't reveal, but that's the general gist.

    [1] - Marketing costs don't usually get taken into account in the cost of production of a film, instead the company distributing the film takes a percentage. For example, in Pixar's early days, Disney was taking an approximate 50% cut. Internet distribution reduces these costs and so the total amount of income required is less to break even, so easier to attain profitability on any production.

    [2] - When you see people saying that you can't make money with online video, I personally think it's because they're still wasting money unnecessarily on production costs. If you use online advertising as a benchmark for monetisation, the way it is now, you really need to reduce the cost of production to be able to make a profit and when/if online advertising recovers, you will only stand to make more money.

    [3] - Another thought is to produce content like Uwe Boll is notorious for. I'm not sure what the situation is now since there has been a few enquiries about his practises, but in the past a film produced "in Germany" (basically by a German production company) was able to have 100% of the money invested into it written off due to German Tax law. So investors were investing say, $10 million into a film, which would only net a $3 million return, yet it essentially cost them nothing due to the tax loophole, so the return was all profit. Uwe Boll would pick up video game licenses (which are why all his films are based of video games) cheaply and produce "films" (I use the term loosely) at an alarming rate.

  234. NeutralfrooMar 18, 2009

    First, I'll note that what you wrote here somewhat contradicts your original post

    Straw man argument. The original post was a series of questions. My reply to your comment was the hypothesis I posed to myself. They don't contradict each other as the questions were posed as a result of the hypothesis.

    This is an absurdly small and misleading sample, even within your stated target.

    This was never intended to be conclusive market research, this is just to see if it warranted further research into the topic. In a short space of time (4 hours) I've received some good feedback and suggestions from both parties and been directed to some resources (eg the zombie comic) that I didn't know existed.

    I could have, for all intensive purposes spend hundreds of thousands of dollars and thousands of hours conducting extensive research - or I could just build the damn thing and release it for much less than what it would cost to obtain "accurate research".

    versus a large, general audience of young viewers who enjoy (and pay for) digital animation content.

    You know, this is where your false argument falls down. You don't have to have a customer paying for the actual content, or even advertising to be able to monetise it. They sure help, but it's not the only method.

    You specifically stated that you wanted to do this as a low-cost thing

    Finally, you got something correct.

    thus you can't be making high-quality, specialized content

    Oops, spoke too soon.

    Just because the big name companies like Pixar and Dreamworks are throwing hundreds of millions of dollars at creating this kind of entertainment, doesn't mean that it is the only way.

    Think about it for a second, really break it down into its component parts. Your typical animation FILM by those 2 studios is around 90 minutes of entertainment and costs upwards of 100 million dollars each. It's about on par with what Hollywood is spending on films.

    Now lets look at your average tv show, 22 minutes of entertainment. So if we used the Hollywood blockbuster model, each episode should cost around $25 million plus right? No, it doesn't work that way.

    Lost for example, which is notorious for being expensive to produce cost (in its first year) $44 million for 22 episodes at 43 minutes (approx) running time each.

    That's an approximate 10 times the entertainment, for less than half the cost.

    So if Film and TV operate at completely different scales, then obviously there is a huge disconnect between the cost of production and the amount that someone can be entertained.

    To further back up my concept, I present to you a video called "Big Buck Bunny" - it is essentially a video demo that was created by the Blender Foundation for their open source tool.

    This video is 10 minutes of animation, completed in 3 months with (depending on how you look at the team makeup) 7-9 guys from concept to delivery using only open source software

    http://www.vimeo.com/1084537

    That surely doesn't look like a low quality animation to me. So it's not an impossible task.

  235. NeutralpotatoliciousMar 5, 2009

    Internet distribution is also a good way for studios to try out riskier ideas. The problem with the broadcast TV structure right now is that nobody dares put an aggressively creative show in a prime time slot - it's money on the table basically. So great new shows that may have attracted a solid fan base get thrown into suicide time slots, and inevitably fail.

    With TV-on-demand (in all of its forms, not just the pay-per-episode format) you can do two things:

    - Make risky shows just as accessible as the top blockbusters, giving them a real shot at success.

    - Play with your price point. People may be willing to pay $2 an episode for Lost, but maybe they'll pay less for a more obscure show? Who knows, maybe you can charge more.

    Up here in Canada Apple doesn't offer most of the shows that I follow, or I would be a regular customer... Neither does Hulu or Amazon... a bit of an untapped market I think, especially given how high cable rates are around here...

  236. NeutralmattmaroonMar 4, 2009

    Yeah, when Radiohead did well releasing a CD online, everyone said "see, it works for Radiohead, it can work for anyone." The problem is that anyone is not Radiohead, or Joss Whedon. Recouping $200k is neat as an experiment, but hardy the foundation of a replacement to television as we know it. One episode of your favorite TV drama alone likely costs much more than that. If your favorite TV drama is Lost, it's 50x that.

    The entertainment industry already has a model very similar to what you just described, just instead of distributing it over the net, they do so to theaters and customers by way of DVD. See http://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/movie-distribution.htm . It explains why you see two or three production credits before the opening sequence of each movie, those are basically their equivalent of VCs.

  237. NeutralpgMar 1, 2009

    It's not true that killed stories can't be seen by anyone except the submitter. They can be seen by everyone else who has showdead turned on.

    You can easily check whether a site is banned by submitting something from it and seeing if it gets killed immediately. I.e. if it's visible on the new page to someone who's not logged in. (You may have to wait a minute because the new page is cached.) Here is the complete list:

    (gamenode.com tytka.blogspot.com fantasysportstrades.com mnhomerental.com downloadeverybodyhateschris.wordpress.com nickherbcpa.com cheepbaseballtickets.com infinitewraps.com freerotator.com copoff.org themmadigest.com mywirelessincome.com watchdollhouse.tv totalleathersolutions.com expofutures.com digital-scrapbook.net inlineseo.com orbitmerchantsolutions.com hostexcellencereview.org drama20show.com pain-killers.net topicster.com websiteapplications.wordpress.com fixmywindshield.com freepspgamesdownload.wordpress.com co.cc tech4news.com kidsites.com seowhitehats.com smukiziedi.lv group-halloween-costume-ideas.wetpaint.com hair-straightener-reviews.com goarticles.com buybestanabolicsteroids.com flowersofindia.net downloadstargateatlantisepisodes.wordpress.com downloadgossipgirlepisode.wordpress.com thelogcabinshop.co.uk downloadknightriderepisodes.weebly.com aimenviro.com bestinfoproductsonline.com ibcsingapore.com end2endconsultant.net refinanceme.com.au com-http.com 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    The great majority are banned for spamming and/or voting rings. Others (like url shortening services, squidoo, etc) are banned because they're often used by spammers. Others are banned for the reasons I listed in that recent essay: linkjacking, being offtopic, or characteristically being fluff.

  238. NeutralGeneralMaximusFeb 16, 2009

    When I was 15, I used to think the Pirate Bay guys were heroes. Not anymore.

    Encouraging piracy and then acting like you're martyrs is not the best way to combat RIAA/MPAA. I really appreciate services like Jamendo, which might not be as effective as straight out theft TPB-style but are actual vehicles which "free" the information that, presumably, wants to be free.

    DISCLAIMER: Yes, I download torrents from TPB. I know it's wrong, but they don't air Lost, Scrubs, South Park or any of my favorite shows in India so I have no choice. If they'd air it on TV, I'd be more than happy to pay my DTH provider an extra amount to get those channels. Heck, I'd even purchase episodes from an online retailer if only it didn't have that nasty DRM. (BTW, does anyone know if the iTunes store works in India now?)

  239. NeutralunaloneDec 1, 2008

    Yech.

    The jokes didn't refer at all to the things that make people use Apple. It took the fact that Apple was popular and actually makes good-looking products, and used that as the basis of insults. That's the laziest sort of humor: joking without actually providing criticism.

    It starts with the fake names. Mapple and Steve Mobs. myPod and myPhone. These aren't funny. The Simpsons could absolutely just use Apple's name and get away with it, if it's obviously parody. That joke adds nothing, and therefore by the rules of comedy ought to be removed. Anything bad brings down the good things.

    Lisa runs into the store and points out Apple products and a parody of the Genius bar, which has never been funny. Apple Geniuses don't let the title go to their head, really. I've dealt with them a lot. They're smart and fun and they know what they're talking about, and they're perfectly willing to admit that Genius is just a bit of silly marketing. So that's another bad joke. Then we see the requisite "Comic Book Guy is sloppy" joke: predictable and not funny. That's the first 20 seconds.

    Now we see Homer begging to get a computer. How is that funny? The Brainiac tells him that it's powered by dreams and imagination. I guess that's supposed to be a joke about how Apple is all talk and no play? Because that's not something that Apple's ever done, and they keep getting made fun of for it, and it's a lazy joke. Sample page: http://www.apple.com/macbookpro/. Apple markets its products only by mentioning features. On the splash page alone it mentions four things. If you talk to a genius, they are entirely pragmatic: they tell you exactly why Apple computers are better than other ones. This is another lazy, unfunny joke that only works if you already dislike Apple, which is the easiest audience on the planet.

    The joke about a glowing computer being turned off - what the hell does that mean? The Wii glows when it's turned off. My Mac doesn't do anything when it's off. In fact, Apple computers tend to have fewer blinking lights than other computers. So there's another lame joke, and we're 40 seconds done with this shitty set of jokes.

    The iPhonies is clever, but it's false. People don't get headphones to pretend like they use Apple products. Nobody does that. Furthermore, a cheap iPod shuffle costs less than a hundred dollars. Apple isn't pretentious and rich. It's high-end, and very rarely makes low-end products, but it's usually got surprisingly reasonable prices. So there's a bad joke based on a false premise that nobody actually believes.

    Now we have a lengthy Krusty sequence that's unfunny. Seriously, now The Simpsons is like Family Guy. It makes stupid, irrelevant cameos just to carry the joke along. The difference is that Simpsons cameos are all Simpsons characters, and none of them are funny.

    Krusty's comment about small movies: I saw the first season of Lost on my iPod on an airplane, and the screen worked for me. Plus, when you put a movie in your iPod it means you also have it on iTunes, on your computer, so it's a win-win. Apple's been steadily increasing screen size: look at the iPhone and iPod touch. Oh. We also get a tasteless Jewish joke here.

    Steve Mobs appears, and people say that he's a genius and knows what they want. I guess this is supposed to be a joke. But from my experience, Jobs comes up with pretty ingenious products and they tend to be ones that I want. How is this funny? I like my computer, my iPod, and the iTunes music store.

    Steve Mobs calls himself "insanely great." Jobs, on the other hand, is rarely self-masturbatory like that. So it's another joke that plays to Apple haters with no context. Next comes Bart, who gets to insult people and call Mac user losers. He also says that Jobs is gay. That's not only poorly stereotyped, that's crude and offensive.

    People don't get Mac products to look cool. They get them because the Mac is incredibly delightful to use. I love my Macbook. It's an amazing tool. I don't care what people think about it: I care what I think about it. And I love it. I also happen to be straight.

    Comic Book Guy reenacts the 1984 commercial, which is nice, but Futurama did it much better. The Simpsons is stealing from its child shows.

    Then there's a pointless joke about how Jobs was fired and brought back. Yeah, because Apple culture just hasn't changed since then, and because Apple had the same image in the 80s that it does now. Jobs began the current Apple feel when he returned, and he's introduced good product after good product. The firing joke is a slightly higher-scale stupid joke, but it's a stupid joke.

    Earbud-flaying. Not funny. Bart trying to escape with a computer. Not sensible, not funny.

    The twins make a "hate Lisa" cameo. Yawn. They don't like her music. Yawn. They like her for her myPod. Kids don't actually... do that. iPods are so incredibly commonplace nowadays. There's a joke to be made about that. It wasn't made.

    I love Itchy and Scratchy, but they're out of good ideas for them. And this one was extended way too far. See? Even the not-anti-Apple parts are bad.

    The myBill is an outdated joke and it's been fixed. And what's the joke? That Apple charges 99 cents for a song? That's pretty cheap. 1200 dollars for 1212 songs is a good deal. But no: it's funny because Apple products are extremely expensive, right? 1200 dollars is so much! Never mind that buying the same amount of songs, say, as CDs from Wal-Mart would cost much more.

    Also, buying songs from iTunes adds itself directly to your credit bill. You're charged instantly. No bill. That's the iPhone's thing.

    The USB drive bit is clever. The underwater headquarters? Not so much. It's cliche and stupid. The big joke is that Apple has made the name Cupertino famous as where Apple comes from. There's a joke to be made there. This doesn't make it, because it's funnier to think that Steve Jobs is underwater like every other rich person on The Simpsons.

    Steve Jobs is Googling himself! Never mind that Google loads fast and the page jobs is looking for has already loaded, so the delay is only there for the "requisite punch line set-up time" that makes jokes less funny. Or that Jobs has never been an attention-getter. He wears the same outfit every day! He's quietly married and his kids stay out of the news! Again! This is only a joke that's funny if you know nothing about Apple and already hate its products.

    Steve Jobs knows all the Apple product users. Not sure why this is unfunny.

    "Our real policy is no refunds." Only, Apple does offer refunds, for a long time after purchase. And Lisa bought 1200 songs! Why does she deserve a refund? This is blind Apple-hate without any reasoning.

    The final joke enforces this. Lisa's in an iPod costume handing out flyers. Apple doesn't do this. Never has. Its entire thing is rational minimalism. It's why Geniuses aren't given specific tasks and are allowed to just wander the store. It keeps their morale high and helps customers. So this is just a bad joke based on a premise - Apple says think differently but doesn't actually think differently - that doesn't exist. Apple does think differently. So there's another bad joke.

    This is terrible writing. It's the worst Simpsons clip I've ever seen. And I'd think that if they were bashing Windows in the same way.

    ---

    I love anti-Apple jokes if they're well done. The "Don't Get A Mac" video still cracks me up. I think that most anti-Apple jokes, however, are crude and poorly-done and just attempts to play up to people who hate Macs already. The Simpsons should be better than this.

    ---

    Also, this isn't at all relevant hacker news, and it's not that intellectually interesting.

  240. PositivejcdreadsNov 22, 2008

    I'm a fan of this old post (probably linked from Hacker News, actually, but I can't really remember)...

    http://whimsley.typepad.com/whimsley/2007/07/the-limitations.html

    ...that asks exactly how much better the experience will be for a particular customer if all this research results in a recommendation engine that's really 10% better than Cinematch. Undoubtedly the marketing value (to Netflix) of the challenge is incredible, and I don't question the reasonableness of their desire to eke satisfaction out of every potentially satisfied customer; but surely there's somewhere else in their business they could more easily improve their margin and their customers' experience.

    I, personally, use Netflix a bunch, and love the service. Furthermore, I love the fact that they sponsored this contest and provided a large research database to support it. I guess I'm just always a bit disappointed by breathless mainstream press coverage that doesn't discuss these other meta-contest questions. That and I wish I could somehow get Netflix to send me season 4 of Lost before season 5 starts.

  241. NeutralhughNov 8, 2008

    Ahhh, right, that explains it.

    However, while I haven't watched every episode of Lost I think it'd be a lot more noticeable if gravity there was 4.815162 times regular Earth gravity. Everybody would be crawling around, for starters.

  242. PositivemarkessienNov 5, 2008

    Anyone who says that Michael Crichton wrote bad books does not understand the point of reading. You don't read to learn, you read because it's a form of entertainment. And Michael Crichton wrote supremely entertaining books. If you are entertained only when you read Shakespeare, then you belong to a small minority of people, and you should not criticize a popular and good author who wrote books read and loved by millions of people, and was behind some of the more spectacular films of the 90s.

    Reading is like watching TV or movies to me. I like watching heavy stuff every now and then, but the bulk of my reading is for entertainment, and Stephen King and Michael Crichton are good examples of such work.

    The same people who criticize Crichton will sit in front of their TVs and watch Lost, and then proclaim it as an excellent show. For people who grew up reading, Lost is the same level as most of Crichtons works.

  243. NeutralfiazFeb 25, 2008

    better technology != community killer

    They could add all the bells and whistles they want, but coining something as a "community killer" (or "Digg killer" in this case) is laughable at best.

    The only way Digg can be killed is if a community shows up that is in some way culturally hip. For example, if some celebrities were to band together and unexpectedly show how hard-core geeky/nerdy they can be, I'm certain it would be more of a Digg killer because they immediately will be pulling attention away for the right reason (what geek wouldn't love to associate themselves with Keanu Reeves if the real-life Neo turns out to be a automata theory junkie!?!?!). Communal value is immediately created around such an individual in the same way Kevin Rose is the focal point for Digg (I'd be hard pressed to be convinced otherwise of Kevin Rose's celebrity status).

    A concrete example is del.icio.us. Yahoo! ended up purchasing del.icio.us even though, one may argue, Yahoo!'s service was technologically superior (tell me otherwise and I'll merely point to the fact that del.icio.us, prior to acquisition and for a period of time afterwards, suffered frequent outages the likes of which would cause heads to roll at Yahoo!). It's true that availability might be classified as different than "feature-set", but my counter argument would be that the reliability of ANY application contributes to the user experience in either a positive or a negative way the same way the color selection might impact the overall user experience. The community wouldn't leave del.icio.us for a reason, and so it didn't matter what technology ANYBODY (Google included) would build to try and move the critical mass away.

    From where did del.icio.us originate? From the mind of an overworked quant jock working for a market maker in Manhattan; Joshua Schachter even got turned down for a job at Google, and I suppose it is up for debate that tagging has revolutionized (ala Clay Shirky) the way we interact with the amount of information we sift through on the internet, but it has definitely changed things in a rather dramatic way. The reason why I mention this last fact is because there is something to be said for hiring people that are not "optimized" enough on their resume because sometimes ideas that formulate from nowhere turn into revolutionary concepts. Similarly, I have very little faith in groups of engineers who can create technologically superior platforms to understand (on average mind you) the cultural/social aspect of WHY certain cultural phenomenon grow in the first place anymore than I would expect TV show writers to understand inductive reasoning/logic and how it relates to creating quality software.

    I would place my money on a geek/nerd who spends his spare time playing with Legos to come up with the next big community than anything that would come from the minds of one of the big internet giants because chances are the geek is more in tune with a trend that is likely to catch on with his friends and then grow virally as opposed to engineered, advertising-driven attempts to create online culture. But I wouldn't at all say that such a community would be a "Digg killer" because the reasons for assembly are different, at a different time, and for the sake of a different user experience. And this type of user experience has NOTHING to do with how windows might expand or hide the way they do on OSX vs. Windows.

    Social software operates on different principles of competition than does software that helps people achieve something. To illustrate further, you don't hear people in the entertainment industry make statements such as, "Is 'Heroes' Going To Be the 'Lost' Killer?" - of course not!

    Social groups are very nebulous and they assemble for reasons completely different than why somebody might choose a web browser, operating system, or any other piece of software that involves achieving how we interact with computers. Social software is about interacting with others and, MOST IMPORTANTLY, the quality of that interaction.

  244. NeutralmmmurfFeb 24, 2008

    True, but adding DRM will make Flash the platform of choice for so much more. Why aren't there 50 competitors to Apple's movie rental product? Because DRM sucks and is expensive.

    Maybe if Adobe can make flash DRM 'just work' then it will actually empower consumers rather than hinder their use of the content.

    I admit, I love the concept of subscription DRM and really with Apple didn't make us all back up all the stuff we've purchased. I don't need the headache of backing up those episodes of "Lost" that I downloaded from the Apple Store, and now that I've had to have them reset the DRM once, if my backup drive fails, I've lost everything.

    The solution isn't to eliminate DRM but to make it more flexible and simple to use. Yahoo Music's subscription store was awesome ($6 per month for unlimited music) but I'd give it only a 5 out of 10 on usability.

  245. NeutralsamsonFeb 13, 2008

    Asking me if I watch TV is like asking me if I go to the theater to watch new movies. The answer is NO to both (90% of the time), but that doesn't mean I don't consume some of the content through other methods (I download it).

    Meaning I won't just drop everything I'm doing on Thursday night to watch Lost, but I'll perhaps catch it on a Saturday afternoon when I have the time or feel like taking a break from my work.

  246. PositivehhmFeb 13, 2008

    Mostly, I don't. I was watching almost 0 tv when somebody gave me some Lost Dvds and then I started seeing that. But apart from Lost, I don't see tv. I don't like it... it's very, very boring.

    But I like going to the cinema (and I like seeing good movies on tv when I'm on the mood, but that's not usual).

  247. NeutralwallflowerFeb 12, 2008

    I stopped watching TV when I moved to the city. Season 2 of Lost was the hardest show to give up. Now I spend more than the time I spent watching TV commuting to the suburbs.

  248. PositiveeasFeb 10, 2008

    I think you are totally right given the current state of video lectures--they are like the first movies, just awkward translations of stage plays that don't take advantage of the ways that a film can be different and better. I'd much rather see a lecture in person today, all else equal. But I imagine as innovators take advantage of the digital media, we'll see some pretty cool stuff one day: higher production values, Second Life-style virtual worlds, more interactivity, HD, and Discovery Channel-type content that can better compete with live lectures. Right now, though, we are definitely on that second Innovator's Dilemma line where digital lectures only compete with the low end and non-consumption, the way maybe NAND memory used to.

    Also, I agree that community is a big deal, and the number one thing we are missing to really take advantage of all the cool content that is coming out. (But I do think other video-based works, like Lost or Serenity or Star Trek, have been able to support both attention and community.)

  249. NeutralericbNov 28, 2007

    My list so far: -Lost Season 1 DVD Set

  250. NeutralbloredSep 20, 2007

    "Internet users don't want to watch TV shows online" != the truth.

    Back in the dawn of Youtube I used to watch all The Daily Show I could fit into my over-sized head. I still love watching old episodes of Hockey Night in Canada and I have bookmarked a non youtube site that let's me watch South Park. I can't count HOW many times in University people would download, myself possibly included, episodes of Lost, Family Guy, America's Next Top model.

    I'd say TV shows online are BETTER than on regular TV because you can watch them when you want. Hence the amazing popularity of TIVO I would assume since I don't have that service.

  251. NeutraldonnaAug 25, 2007

    think of the TV show LOST, where the user actually experiences being a character - out-of-body, in another role, like an actor.